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View Diary: The Iraq Election: Defining Success (489 comments)

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  •  "best can do" (3.50)
    yes it's a shame we couldn't put in a massive lockdown (closing borders, etc) after the initial invasion as we have for the election. it's disgusting that Bremer was more focused on introducing capitalism than providing security.

    that being said, I am glad that the election went off better than expected. I was worried that I would wake up this morning to more bloodshed than has occurred. I hope that the insurgents didn't just decide to lay low for the election only to come out in force in days to come. I hope the fact that, however lopsided in representation, that many people did vote will have some resounding psychological impact on all the Iraqis.

    •  Hope is on the way (none)
      Suppose that's true, how does that effect the insurgents?

      "Just say no to torture." -Semi-Anonymous Blogger.

      by Armando on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 08:47:59 AM PST

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      •  I am sure (none)
        the insurgents would have preferred to have intimidated more people to stay away.

        and for those people who proudly voted in spite of the insurgents, I would think they feel a little more invested now.

        symbolism can be powerful, even if there is not a one-to-one correspondence with reality.

        •  I should add (none)
          if this admin chooses to revel in the qualified success,and chooses to settle for symbolism alone, these voters will experience an unfathomable disillusion.
          •  Hmm (none)
            What do you mean? What do you think this Administration can and should do?

            "Just say no to torture." -Semi-Anonymous Blogger.

            by Armando on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:07:25 AM PST

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            •  less crow, more show (3.50)
              believe me, if they take these elections as a sign they can start liberating Iran or Syria next, it will be an apalling mistake.

              if they can accelerate the training for Iraqi security forces, maybe having to eat humble pie and finally accept other countries offers of help to do that.

              if they can focus more on reconstruction of Iraq, and the employment of Iraqis, rather than their construction of army bases in Iraq, and their salivating over Iraqi oil.

              big ifs, I know.

              as for the Sunnis, there has been talk of somehow including them in the writing of the constitution, despite the election boycott. I can't say how the exact mechanics of that would work, but it might provide some face-saving for the Sunnis if it's done that way.

        •  But (3.66)
          Sunnis did not vote. Do you mean the Shia and Kurds will be more committed to fighting against the Sunni insurgents? Do you see the act of voting as being more motivational than say - revenge?

          Perhaps I'm too cynical.  But the act of voting for Shia and Kurd seems easy to understand - the acquisition of power.  Sunni insurgents will seek their power by other means.

          "Just say no to torture." -Semi-Anonymous Blogger.

          by Armando on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:06:48 AM PST

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          •  Exactly (none)
            It isn't a victory that the Shia and the Kruds turned out today.  That was expected.  The sunnis are who are running the insurgency.  Shia have never really been part of it--it would be an odd civil war if they were.  The fact the Sunnis didn't turn out is if anything a sign that the insurgency is becoming even more entrenched.

            To his virtues be very kind, to his vices, very blind.

            by Descrates on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:15:14 AM PST

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            •  Yeah... (none)

              Sunni not voting ends up being either a vote FOR insurgency or a vote of fear that the insurgency is so powerful and hostile to elections (some combination of both, in reality) that those who like to contionue living don't vote.

              I'll just remind folks that the historical estimates on the US revolution suggest that only about 1/3 of the population actually supported the revolution.  Another 1/3 was loyalist, and the last 1/3 was confused, apolitical, or didn't care.

              O it is excellent to have a giant's strength; but it is tyrannous To use it like a giant--Shakespeare, Measure for Measure, Act II

              by ogre on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:21:05 AM PST

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            •  No, there's some of both (none)
              Some people who are Sunni are running the insurgency. Not all of them, mind you. Many of the Sunnis aren't voting because of suport for such an insurgency, but because America just ruined Fallujah despite all the massive outcry over it (many Iraqis resigned their positions in government in protest, some previously pro-American). Many are insisting that they will not vote until the US leaves. The Association of Muslim Scholars says there's nothing wrong with democracy per se, but that it's being held under US occupation, US control, and it's just too dangerous to go out and vote. Until a few days ago, the entire slate was anonymous. Some Shiites have also been behind the insurgency, do you remember the Mahdi army?

              According to Zogby's Poll of 805 Iraqis between January from January 19 to 23, 2005 in the cities of Baghdad, Hilla, Karbala and Kirkuk, as well as Diyala and Anbar provinces:

              Sunni Arabs who say they will vote on Sunday: 9%
              Sunni Arabs who say they definitely will not vote on Sunday: 76%
              Shiites who say they likely or definitely will vote: 80%
              Kurds who say they likely or definitely will vote: 56%

              Sunni Arabs who want the US out of Iraq now or very soon: 82%
              Shiites who want the US out of Iraq now or very soon: 69%

              Sunni Arabs who believe US will hurt Iraq over next 5 years: 62%
              Shiites who believe US will hurt Iraq over next five years: 49%

              Shiites who want to hold elections on Jan. 30: 84%
              Kurds who want to hold elections on Jan. 30: 64%

              Sunni Arabs who want to postpone elections: 62%

              Sunni Arabs who consider guerrilla resistance against the Americans legitimate: 53%

              Iraqis who would support a religious government: 33%

          •  In other words, la plus que ca change (none)

            To thine own self be true - W.S.

            by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 10:44:26 AM PST

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