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View Diary: The Iraq Election: Defining Success (489 comments)

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  •  So this situatin is better? (none)
    Are you kidding?  We could easily guarantee the Kurds safety by leaving a small force in Kurdistan.  Everyone else gets to come home.  As I've said above--its definitely doable and far preferrable to the current situation.  It just requires a little thought--something too many people don't do in international relations--especially the Bush adminstration.

    To his virtues be very kind, to his vices, very blind. moralquestionsblog.com

    by Descrates on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:26:37 AM PST

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    •  No. (none)
        We could. But what would Turkey do? They wouldn't let us resupply our troops through Turkey, so are you up for constantly driving convoys through Shia and Sunni Iraq? Because I doubt they'd love us enough to secure the routes.

        So that solution involves isolating American troops with no way to easily supply or extricate them. Lovely.

      •  I'm sure we could find a way to resupply the troop (none)
        The point is which way is better.  IMHO, this is a better option.  Turkey will go along with it if we underwrite the security of the situation.  Something like--oh I don't know--Germany after World War II.  ITs better than having our troops in a war zone for the next 8 years, don't you think?

        To his virtues be very kind, to his vices, very blind. moralquestionsblog.com

        by Descrates on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:40:06 AM PST

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        •  No.. (none)
            No they won't. They're not worried about invasion from a Kurdish state. They're worried about their own Kurds revolting and joining with the new Kurdish state, effectively removing a big chunk of Turkey.

            Turkey views a Kurdish state as -- in effect -- taking a significant chunk of Turkey with it.

            And underwrite their security? How? Send our troops into the nastiness of a Turkey/Kurdish war? Fight Kurdish insurgents?

            It's the same damn thing as staying.

        •  Yuo dont understand the situation (none)
          AT ALL.

          A kurdish state would be THE most destabilizing thing in the region. WORSE than Israel.

          Be CLEAR, turkey has a HUGE Kurd population, which would seek to immediately annex a huge part of turkey to join to become part of a new Kurdistan.

          Since Turkey is close to being allowed into the EU, this kind of destabilizing event would prevent that, ensuring that Turkey would move mountains to prevent it.

          furthermore, Iraq doesnt divide nicely into 3 seperate geographic areas AT ALL.

          Kirkut, would he HIGHLY constests for its oils fields (and is going ot be) The baghdad area is a absolute mix of all three groups, and could not be divided.

          A Sunni region would be left with no access to oil, little access to the coast, next to Iran (who are Shiite).

          Even Liberal experts on the region, such as Jaun Cole thing the whole idea of annexation would be a disaster.

          Anyone who suggests such an idea is either playing down the complexity and problems with it significantly, or is ignorant of the geopolitical situation.

          I suggest before getting into a back and forth here, those who propose such a plan should go do some greater in depth reading.

          I am a Reform Democrat

          by Pounder on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 10:10:11 AM PST

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          •  This is assuming a lot of naunce on the part of (none)
            the Bush administration, but here's the solution.  Work in concert with NATO and the EU and leave a force in Kurdistan to guarantee Turkey doesn't do that.  I have a very hard time imagining Turky attacking US forces.  

            To his virtues be very kind, to his vices, very blind. moralquestionsblog.com

            by Descrates on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 10:28:36 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Turkey (none)
              Turkey can stop it, because over a 1/3 of Turkey is Kurdish. That's the problem.

              Its the annexation of TURKEY that's the problem, not Kurdistan. The US wouldnt be IN turkey, it would be civil war, potentially, political insecurity for sure, and terrorism ala basque sepratists.

              It isnt Kurdistan that needs protecting, its turkey from itself.

              Kurdistan would surely (i think) support the annexation (unless they could be persuaded not to somehow) that is how war between Turkey and the Kurds in Kurdistan would come about. Thats only the secondary consideration.

              The US would then be right between 2 allies. Pick a side or leave em go at it ?

              I am a Reform Democrat

              by Pounder on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 10:37:52 AM PST

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              •  We have to make a choice here (none)
                We can do what we can--and there are a few things we can do--maintain as much stability as possible in the region.  But I don't think we should continue in the situation we're in.  I think we should take most of our troops home as soon as possible.  This is the best way to do it.  Iraq is virtually governmentless.  Turkey has a long established government and is far likelier to survive any any instability that should occur.  At a certain point we have to take care of our people.   I understand that point of cleaning up the mess we made, but these soldiers didn't make this choice.  They've been screwed and deserve to be sent home.  If we work with our allies and Turkey and the Kurd, I can imagine some solutions to the problems your talking about.  But this isn't working.  We need to do something new.  Its not a perfect option, but if we work hard enough, I think it can work.  It won't be perfect, but what is?

                To his virtues be very kind, to his vices, very blind. moralquestionsblog.com

                by Descrates on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 10:46:50 AM PST

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                •  what allies? (none)
                  You are talking about Europes back yard. At this point Europeans aren't realy that concernd about the safety of US soldiers. You chose to get into this mess. I doubt the european union will be
                  willing to help the US instead of supporting Turkey.    

                  You know you're in trouble, when you've got to ask Dick Cheney to "cheer up" the voters.

                  by amsterdam on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 10:58:06 AM PST

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                  •  I'm not denying it would be tough with these (none)
                    guys in office.  A lot of this is wishful thinking of course, virually requiring a change of leadership.  But if it comes down leaving our guys in Iraq for another 4 years to die, I'd have to say let's try it for their sake.  If the Kurds pull out as the shia'hs and sunnis descend into choas, we'll be in the same boat anyway--only worse.

                    To his virtues be very kind, to his vices, very blind. moralquestionsblog.com

                    by Descrates on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 11:33:00 AM PST

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                    •  I understand that you want these soldiers out (none)
                      I just believe that any solution which can be interpreted by the Bush adminstration as a succes will only lead to more agression, and in the long run cause more deaths, including US military. I think Europe should start showing some backbone and stop assisting this administration in what it is doing to the Iraq's, Americans and the rest of the world.      

                      You know you're in trouble, when you've got to ask Dick Cheney to "cheer up" the voters.

                      by amsterdam on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 11:54:16 AM PST

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                •  My solution (none)
                  Have the newly elected Iraqi government negotiate wit hthe insurgent political leadership, to descale the violence in exchange ofr a greater seat at the national political table.

                  ie have the shiites give up some of that 60% majority to the sunnis, and also cede more autonomy to the Kurds.

                  that's the play I expect to be called in the coming weeks and months. it MIGHT work.

                  I am a Reform Democrat

                  by Pounder on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 11:03:43 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah, and while your at it (none)
                    how about talking Israel into negotiating with the Palestinians to descale the violence in exchange for a greater seat at the national political table? It is a lot easier for us to say such things here when we aren't involved in the situation.
          •  Kurdistan (none)
            There are other reasons why an independent Kurdish state would be problematic, namely Iran and Syria.  Bashir al-Asad has been busy repressing his own Kurds since the US invasion.  He has killed over 600 and imprisoned many hundreds more in the last two years. The Syrian Kurds would get help from an independent Kurdistan.  The situation is very similar in Iran but on a smaller scale.  We must also remember that Turkey and its Kurds have had a very fragile ceasefire since the mid ninties.  Before this the Kurdish language was completely banned in Turkey. Many young Kurds can't even speak it.  The very word "Kurd" was also banned.  The Kurds were officially referred to as people of the mountains. Most of their political leaders were imprisoned or killed by the state.(And remember the Turkish Army still has enormous influence and can threaten any turkish government.  These countries also fear the influence that Israel would have in Kurdistan  There are already  significant numbers of Israeli clandestine forces there.  They helped train the peshmerga and the security services. Syria and Iran would not tolerate a "fifth column" in their backyard. Meanwhile we must remember that the Kurds are no saints.  The two main political groups are similar to the corrupt warlords of Afghanistan.  Also it was the Kurdish troops of the Ottoman Empire (on orders from the Sultan and later the Young Turks) that carried out the two Armenian Genocides of the 1890s and 1915-17. Kurda were some of the most effective and ruthless troops during the Ottoman era. Many Arabs have good reason to fear the Kurdish fighters.
      •  That's why Syria is next... (none)
        then we can drive our convots across it from the Mediterranean!  Or even Israel!

        ...Ash nazg thrakatulûk, agh burzum-ishi krimpatul

        by las casas on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 12:14:57 PM PST

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