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View Diary: The Iraq Election: Defining Success (489 comments)

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  •  No, there's some of both (none)
    Some people who are Sunni are running the insurgency. Not all of them, mind you. Many of the Sunnis aren't voting because of suport for such an insurgency, but because America just ruined Fallujah despite all the massive outcry over it (many Iraqis resigned their positions in government in protest, some previously pro-American). Many are insisting that they will not vote until the US leaves. The Association of Muslim Scholars says there's nothing wrong with democracy per se, but that it's being held under US occupation, US control, and it's just too dangerous to go out and vote. Until a few days ago, the entire slate was anonymous. Some Shiites have also been behind the insurgency, do you remember the Mahdi army?

    According to Zogby's Poll of 805 Iraqis between January from January 19 to 23, 2005 in the cities of Baghdad, Hilla, Karbala and Kirkuk, as well as Diyala and Anbar provinces:

    Sunni Arabs who say they will vote on Sunday: 9%
    Sunni Arabs who say they definitely will not vote on Sunday: 76%
    Shiites who say they likely or definitely will vote: 80%
    Kurds who say they likely or definitely will vote: 56%

    Sunni Arabs who want the US out of Iraq now or very soon: 82%
    Shiites who want the US out of Iraq now or very soon: 69%

    Sunni Arabs who believe US will hurt Iraq over next 5 years: 62%
    Shiites who believe US will hurt Iraq over next five years: 49%

    Shiites who want to hold elections on Jan. 30: 84%
    Kurds who want to hold elections on Jan. 30: 64%

    Sunni Arabs who want to postpone elections: 62%

    Sunni Arabs who consider guerrilla resistance against the Americans legitimate: 53%

    Iraqis who would support a religious government: 33%

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