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View Diary: The Iraq Election: Defining Success (489 comments)

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  •  Let me see... (none)
    ...60% voter participation (higher than the 57% on Nov. 2 2004, makes me sick).  

    Kurds are 15% of the population and they had 110% participation.  Reports of large numbers of Turkish Kurds going to Kurdistan (yes it is coming and I support their drive for their own country in principle) so realy lets say 15% Kurds in overall voting population.  

    This leaves 45%.  Let's say that 65% of Shias voted (remember Muqtada Al Sadr's people and some other Shias are probably not voting).  Since Shias make up 60% of the eligible voters that means that of the remaining 45% (after subtracting the Kurds)  39% are Shias.    

    5% of the population is made up of Turkomens, Christians and other ethnic and religious groups.  Let's say 60% of these voted.  Thats another 3%.
    39+3= 41.

    4% left for Sunnis.

    Since Sunnis represent 20% of the population, it means that 80% of the Sunnis did not vote.

    Am I on to something here?

    Dailykos.com; an oasis of truth.

    by Shockwave on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 02:54:57 PM PST

    •  Yes. You are missing one point (none)
      (or rather incorrectly assuming that) 'Mucky Sadr's people have boycotted the election. He has bided his time and kept a low profile since last May when Bushco came after him in  Najaf/Karbala/Sadr City, and tended to his base to get out the vote.

      My guess Sadr people voted with  the parties aligned to Sistani's (65% of Shias). Adding Sadr's to Sistani's votes = ~85% of total Iraqi Shi'ites in same [religion-centered anti-occupation] coalition.

      This size majority would make this bloc a awesome winner in a fair and honest election.

      But Bushco is NOT about let that happen!

    •  Can you give me sources? (none)
      I'm interested in your claim that Turkish Kurds have been slipping across the border to vote: mainly because my Kurdish pal Z was on the phone Friday night saying how important it was for him to vote to counteract the huge numbers of Iranian Shi'a crossing into Iraq to influence the poll. I like to annoy him so could you give me your source?

      According to Z, the ex-pat voting was one huge celebration and very moving; I haven't the heart to be negative in the face of his enthusiasm and pride. So I'm waiting for the actual results before I start guessing. And I'm hoping for the best.

      •  Source on Turkish Kurds voting in Iraq (none)
        Galloise and not Gauloise? Interesting.

        Here you can read this;

        In Turkey polling went smoothly in Istanbul and Ankara, although exiled Turkmen Iraqis were angry because thousands of Kurds based in Turkey were allowed to vote in Kirkuk, in Iraq.

        Dailykos.com; an oasis of truth.

        by Shockwave on Mon Jan 31, 2005 at 10:00:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Galloise (none)
          I'm welsh and female i.e. galloise, and I live in Paris. And I'm blonde. And an ex-smoker. It all makes sense if you know me.

          Thanks for the info; but I don't know how much credence to place with the source given, the Iraqi Turkoman Front? This group gets its funding from Ankara scroll down to recommedation 2 and I think Turkey wants to stir the shit here which they have been doing all week. According to this blog "the Kurdish-Turkmen-Arab Brotherhood list of Kirkuk seems to have won the majority of the voters according to Hawlati, a Kurdish newspaper"; I hope this is as good an omen as it sounds in terms of a peaceful solution to the Kirkuk situation.

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