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View Diary: Primary Day(s) Preview: KS, MI, MO, TN (80 comments)

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  •  1.7 million = predicted turnout in MI. (1+ / 0-)
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    MI SOS Terri Lynn Land predicts that Michigan's primary turnout will be 1.7 million.  That's roughly 24% of registered voters in the state.

    Heritage Newspapers

    Of course, Michigan's overall population is more than 9.9 million.  That means that only 17% of Michigan's overall population will participate on Tuesday.

    Republicans will likely have an advantage in primary participation, but let's say for the sake of argument that primary ballot selection divides evenly.  That will mean that 8.5% will participate in each party primary.

    The Republican side of the primary has five candidates.  The last poll showed Rick Snyder in the lead with 26% of the vote.  8.5% multiplied by .26 equals 2.21%.

    This means that this Tuesday, a candidate will win a major party nomination for governor with 2.21% of the vote.

    by DingellDem on Sun Aug 01, 2010 at 08:40:52 AM PDT

    •  I wonder if there will be any deal making... (1+ / 0-)
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      with a Cox/Hoekstra/Snyder and Bouchard.  Bouchard is running a distant 4th but has enough support to play king maker.  Would he want the Lt. Governor gig?

      Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

      by Jonze on Sun Aug 01, 2010 at 09:15:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Too late. (0+ / 0-)

        His name is on the ballot.  His commercials are cranking.  If anything, he has shown more traction in recent days.

        A five candidate primary with four pretty evenly matched candidates is a complete crapshoot.  And add the high probability of bizarre crossover voting and you have a complete mess.

        Honestly, primaries like this don't reflect any kind of will from the electorate.

        by DingellDem on Sun Aug 01, 2010 at 09:20:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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