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View Diary: Waxman channels many of us (238 comments)

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  •  We're not getting over 60 in the Senate. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jfern, Adam B

    There's too many seats to defend. Unfortunately (for me), we'll lose Lincoln. Dorgan's seat is gone too. Ditto Joe Biden's old seat, just because it's Mike Castle running. That's 3 right there. In addition we're still slated to lose our seat in Colorado and Obama's old seat in Illinois unless our boys can turn things around. Hell, Barbara Boxer looks to be in trouble. Even Russ Feingold is in imminent danger of losing (by current polling).

    Reid may have lucked out with drawing Sharron Angle as an opponent, but even he's not completely out of the woods.

    The only seats we have an even halfway-realistic chance of picking up are Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Maybe Arizona if McCain is defeated in the primary. But the GOP retains an edge in all four of those races.

    So yeah, we're gonna have a net loss. Probably still keep our majority though.

    "I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear..." --Obama, 1/20/09

    by SouthernFried on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 09:51:48 AM PDT

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    •  Crap, I forgot some.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B

      We're also guaranteed to lose Indiana (sorry Brad). Depending on what Crist wants to do, we may pick up Florida. There's also a tiny outside chance we pick up KY, but if and only if Rand Paul sticks his foot in his mouth some more; it's his race to lose.

      In fact, there's a chance that we even lose our majority in the Senate, to say nothing of the House, where the odds for control flipping are pretty even at this point.

      "I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear..." --Obama, 1/20/09

      by SouthernFried on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 09:55:50 AM PDT

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    •  Alex is leading Kirk now (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, soms, flhiii88

      although though only a few points.  However, it's trending in the right direction.

      This is not a book (Atlas Shrugged) to be tossed aside lightly. It should be thrown, with great force. - Dorothy Parker

      by edwardssl on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 09:59:37 AM PDT

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    •  JamesB3, is that you? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, soms

      Delaware is one of the bluest states in the nation, and Castle has voted lockstep with the obstructionists this cycle, against everything his voters want. What makes you think Delaware will suddenly elect a John Boehner Republican extremist to the US Senate...and an elderly one, to boot, knowing that gaining seniority over time is Delaware's one tactic to having influence anywhere in Congress?

      OK, it's Castle, so yeah it could happen...let me rephrase it...what makes you think such a thing is such a foregone conclusion that we should just roll over and begin the funeral service before the operation?

      You can count on the VP to make this seat a special priority, and to campaign heavily in the State in the fall.  Ellsworth isn't exactly down and out in Indiana, either. His opponent is exactly the type of east coast lobbyist Hoosiers hate the most. As with Angle and Paul, the GOP may have saved an unsavable seat for us by choosing the worst possible standard bearer.

      The Right Wing wants to take America back. The left wing wants to take America forward. Any questions?

      by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 10:03:52 AM PDT

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      •  Who's James83? (0+ / 0-)

        You and I both know that Castle's recent tilt to the right may be what might (read: might) save us in this seat.

        I think Beau Biden could have beaten Castle. Kaufmann could too had he decided to run. I admit I don't know anything about the current Dem in the race. With lack of info, I must defer to conventional wisdom, no matter how bullshit it is.

        And I'd love to be proven wrong on Indiana. Ellsworth would be a pretty good fit for the state, but it's a matter of getting every possible Dem to the polls. Not an easy task in an off-year.

        "I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear..." --Obama, 1/20/09

        by SouthernFried on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 10:08:53 AM PDT

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        •  He was a notorious pessimist a few years back (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          All he ever did was post to the effect that "We can't win anything! We're DOOOOOOOOOMED!" He worried that Bush would win Massachusetts.

          Even when he was right about things (in fairness, he was in Georgia at a time when Georgia was shedding Democrats like pattern baldness), it wasn't helpful for morale.

          Does victory look impossible? Tough shit; victory is our mission. The point is not to talk about how we're all going to fail. The point is to find and take a way that wins the impossible.

          The Right Wing wants to take America back. The left wing wants to take America forward. Any questions?

          by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 10:35:41 AM PDT

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    •  McCain is not going to lose his primary. n/t (0+ / 0-)
    •  I'd say we have a better shot (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      at Delaware than Ohio and about 100 times greater shot at Illinois. I think your assessment is infinitely too pessmistic, just as I think getting over 60 is wildly optimistic. Boxer and Feingold will win, probably pretty easily. Alexi will win too. Reid is out of the woods. We have a decent shot at Colorado. Ohio will be difficult if radical changes don't occur to the campaign that should have happened nearly three months ago (and I don't mean still ANOTHER new campaign manager either).

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 10:32:07 AM PDT

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    •  Oh, Goodie!!!! (0+ / 0-)

      because the dem majority has really done alot for us since attaining a "majority".

      "It's pretty clear human beings aren't improving". Spencer Greenberg - Rebellion Research

      by Superpole on Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 11:02:11 AM PDT

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