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View Diary: Sunday Train: Richard Florida and the End of the Automobile Age (54 comments)

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  •  Our 'debt to China' is ... (6+ / 0-)

    .. denominated in dollars. If they wish to sell it before it matures, they will be pushing the exchange rate of the US$ down and the value of the ¥RMB up.

    So, yeah, they could "dump out debt", and make our remaining export industries suddenly far more competitive against Chinese industry than they have been for a decade or more ... but, why would they?

    As far as the threat to their food production capacity ... why do you think they are reaching all sorts of deals with African nations where they sell buses or other manufactures on soft credit terms or in return for mining concessions at rates favorable to the African nation? A substantial increase in the world market price of grains means the end of the dumping of subsidized grain from the US and EU into Africa, which means a substantial increase in the agricultural productive capacity of African producers.

    Nobody with any sense would bank on the US government being so mired in neoliberal ideology that it can be bluffed into paying a debt with wheat that can just as easily be paid with newly created US$. Even if that'd be a nice con to pull on the US if our government is so gullible, its no sure thing.

    On natural gas reserves, what the fellow has going for him is, nobody knows how much of the tightly packed natural gas plays there are out there. They are not like crude oil ... they produce, and then they stop. Then you move on and fracture some more rock, and, if there's gas in the rock, it produces, and then it stops.

    Since nobody knows, nobody can prove him wrong when he claims that there's plenty. However, there is a bit of a burden of proof problem there ... the natural gas cornucopians are saying to put all of our eggs in one basket based on uncertainty that it will fail. Certainty that it will succeed is more like the standard of proof I would prefer for a "all eggs in one basket" strategy.

    Start 2010 with Lesbian Creative Works, 100% Yuri from ALC Publishing

    by BruceMcF on Sun Aug 15, 2010 at 07:14:19 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  so would you say he was touting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BruceMcF

      bs for the most part? I mean,i asked him for example, how as the movie depicted could these 50million climate refugees actualy GET to the US ...i mean if we are talking 20,30 years out... And we are talking LCA as well as the huge investments the US is putting into securing our borders who the hell is going to let them in and who is going to get them here and why are spending billions of dollars studying climate change as a national security threat? He acknowledged that the problem would be more with smaller offshore islands like Haiti ... and that it would never to that, that the movie was unrealistic... But I guess my question is (*and of course you won't this anwer needless to say) is that we have this new Nash movie presenting a very alarmist view of how the climate refugee situation is going to impact the US BIG time and cause massive wars actually within our country itself and then LEster Brown talking how we can solve all this if we do like FDR did and just covert the factories into mfg solar and windmills etc. while meanwhile sitting right there in the front are these people who don't agree at all. It was quite a mixed message ... but then of course, I was the only one to bring up these issues ...

      when i'm not busy living, i tweet as boatsie

      by boatsie on Sun Aug 15, 2010 at 07:24:43 PM PDT

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      •  This is where I keep going back to ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RunawayRose, Calamity Jean

        ... burden of proof ... reasonable people can disagree about the possibly or probably supply of natural gas in the US over the next twenty or fifty years ... but anyone stating certainty about natural gas supply over the twenty to fifty year time frame either has been sold a bill of goods or is peddling one.

        As far as the brown hordes ... I see no reason why we know that we won't be among the refugees if worst comes to worst. And people who imagine "fortress America" often still fantasize that the US lives on our own resources and exports a surplus abroad, when in reality our resource footprint substantially exceeds our own nation's biocapacity.

        So refugees do not have to spill over our borders to cause massive dislocations to our current economy: they need only disrupt our present sources of resources from abroad to gave massive dislocation to our economy as we have presently organized it.

        Sure, by switching back to two or three meat meals a week, we could in the abstract easily feed our population on our present resources ... but lining up our resources to accomplish that is a big problem. We rely on (10% imported) natural gas for ammonia based fertilizers and to dry corn ... if at the same time we are trying to convert trucks from diesel to natural gas so we can get food to supermarkets in the midst of a disruption in crude oil supplies, that is a mess.

        Start 2010 with Lesbian Creative Works, 100% Yuri from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Sun Aug 15, 2010 at 07:44:43 PM PDT

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    •  To understand Paul Krugman (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RunawayRose, BruceMcF
      You only have to understand that as the Yuan rises against the Dollar, the relative value of the US debt is devalued, as is the relative value of Treasury notes held by Chinese/others.

      In other words, you loan me $10 I pay back $7.

      What about my Daughter's future?

      by koNko on Sun Aug 15, 2010 at 09:20:16 PM PDT

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      •  But it is important not to be limited to ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RunawayRose, koNko

        ... understanding Paul Krugman. He is not as limited to only viewing the world through the filter of his mathematical models as many neoclassically-based economists are ... but he is still a neoclassically based economist, working on the basis of the falsified theory of utility maximizing human behavior.

        Start 2010 with Lesbian Creative Works, 100% Yuri from ALC Publishing

        by BruceMcF on Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 07:27:22 AM PDT

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