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View Diary: Daily Kos Gulf Watchers ROV #327 - Endless Fishin' - BP's Gulf Catastrophe (280 comments)

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  •  Thanks to DavidPA for fixing my calculation (9+ / 0-)

    ...because I goofed.

    If the oil plume is the size that it was in June, and contains the full amount of oil that remains unaccounted for, then the concentration of the oil in the plume is on the order of 10 ppm, clearly toxic. To a small area of the Gulf, as Wee Mama's graphic showed.

    If the plume is twice as big in all directions - make that two hyphens in Wee Mama's chart - then it's eight times lower mean concentration, call it 1.5 ppm or so. Still not good, and this combination may be close to the worst case.

    If the plume has spread for hundreds of miles, as some claim, then it's a lot more than eight times the volume, and the concentrations are proportionately lower. And once you get down to below 100 ppb, the effects on life start looking a lot more tolerable. So I think the "OMG, this plume is stretching from Texas to Florida!" doomsayers are proclaiming great good news if they're right.

    It all comes down to "how big are the plumes?" And, paradoxically, bigger is better.

    I'm not trying to be a BP apologist, but it's wrong to give up all hope.

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