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View Diary: AK-Sen: Miller could pull off upset in Alaska (208 comments)

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  •  Wasn't that assuming Murkowski? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oceanview, Randall Sherman

    Alaska's been trending left like most western states lately, gaining a Dem majority in the State Senate and electing Senator Begich. It's a lot closer to Montana than to Idaho politically, and has a sizeable Ecotopian contingent. Many Republican victories have been attributable to Green party candidates that get more votes than the margin between the Dems and Repukes. Obama would probably have been competitive in the state in 2008 but for Palin.  And Palin has been poisoning the well and dividing the GOP in Alaska. Many Republicans will not vote for a Palin Candidate.

    Expect both Miller and McAdams to now get a lot of media attention, just like Alvin Greene. If Miller turns out to be another Buck/Angle/Paul/Rubio crackpot, his own mouth could give us a Dem pickup in Alaska.

    Of course, if the National Democrats, as expected, kick the opportunity away and agree in the spirit of bipartisanship that Republicans are entitled to several byes in "their" states and that only Dem-held seats--all of them--are on the table for a contest--then it won't happen.  

    Alaska's a cheap media market. You get some bang for a little buck here. Keep an eye on McAdams. He may be worth giving him some lovin'.

    Will Begich campaign for him and ask his constituents to send him a partner who will eork with him?

    The Right Wing wants to take America back. The left wing wants to take America forward. Any questions?

    by AdmiralNaismith on Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 10:58:19 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Have to disagree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AdmiralNaismith

      Obama would have had a much narrower gap, but I think Alaska's still in general a long way off from being in the range of 'competitive' at the national level. Democrats in Alaska have been able to capitalize on a number of critically-wounded Republicans, but that can happen just about anywhere. Look at Cao in Louisiana or Brown in Massachusetts or Djou in Virginia or Rand Paul in Kentucky - if one side runs a candidate with a massive critical flaw (Jefferson's freezer money, Coakley's ineptness at campaigning, the split Hawaiian Democratic ballot), then it can open up a seat anywhere to a competitive race, no matter the expected partisan lean in the relevant area. It has less effect on the presidential race.

      That said, it's definitely possible that Miller turns out to be crackpotty enough to make the state competitive for the Senate seat, regardless of whether it would be remotely winnable for Obama.

      NH4JL DIT '04, NHDP DIT '08!

      by realnrh on Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 12:46:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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