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View Diary: New statistical 2010 projections: Dems lose House by 12 (90 comments)

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  •  Very Logical And Smart But I Saw Two Predictions (6+ / 0-)

    that are based on economical, historic and patterns of the last 30 years and these polls predict that democrats will  lose 20 to 35 reps.  Not enough to lose the house.  I don't think this is going to be a big of a wave as most pollsters predict because of the likely voter model that pollsters are using.  Of course I am not a pollster and not a scientist. So, what do I know, but I will go with the more optimistic polls for democrats.

    •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

      Every other recent forecast that I've seen has pretty much been in line with ours. There were some older estimates that pre-date the large drop in the generic that has happened in the last month.

      •  It was from a Huffpo article today (0+ / 0-)

        written by the people.  Here's the link.  

        They contrasted with doomsday predictions like this one with two other projections: a 27-30 seat loss and a 22 seat loss.  The difference in projections was based on different assumptions.  

          Two more models offered a less pessimistic outlook for the Democrats:

           * Alfred Cuzan forecast a Republican gain of 27 to 30 seats based on a model, developed with University of West Florida colleague Charles Bundrick, that relies mostly on measures of economic growth and inflation rather than voter preference polling.

           * Michael Lewis Beck of the University of Iowa predicted a Republic gain of just 22 seats. He collaborated with Charles Tien of CUNY Hunter College on a more than 30-year-old "referendum" model based on measurements earlier this year. Their model was the only one to exclude measurements of the current seat division between Democrats and Republicans.

        Why so much variation in the forecasts? Another speaker, Gary Jacobson of the University of California San Diego, pointed out that the number of previous elections typically used by forecasters (typically between 16 and 32) is "not a very big number," while a great many "plausible" predictive measures exist. Moreover, the national polling numbers used by the modelers are often "really, really noisy."

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