Skip to main content

View Diary: People don't like Republicans (170 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  WHO TURNS OUT Nov is key, not general opinion (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, dsmmom

    The underlying reason the GOP is expected to do well in the November mid-term elections is NOT that the GOP has gained significantly greater approval or popularity since 2008 among the general electorate.  Rather, it's because GOP voters and GOP-leaning independents are proportionately more likely to turn out in November, whereas Dem voters and Dem-leaning independents are proportionately less likely to turn out.

    In short, GOP-leaning voters are inclined to express their dissatisfaction by turning out.  Dem-leaning voters are inclined to express their dissatisfaction by NOT turning out.  So it doesn't matter that if you include the latter (plus genuinely undecided independents) in your sample of who approves whom and what, the Rethugs are disliked/disapproved of by a significantly greater margin than are the Dems, if the Rethugs are disproportionately inclined to vote in November in sufficient numbers.

    What's particularly dangerous (and potentially painful) is that the difference between a rather tepid ordinary off-year election gain by the GOP (as the party out of the White House) and a huge off-year gain whereby they take control of the house and leave the Dems in control of the Senate by a mere sliver will be...literally a sliver of one to four percentage points difference in turnout.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site