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View Diary: Polling and Political Wrap, 9/21/10 (84 comments)

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  •  Adjusting PPP (R-l) to reality (WI and WV) (1+ / 0-)
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    PPP (R-l), which if you're wondering stands for Rasmussen-lite -- has really put out some extraordinary polling as of late.

    They are expecting some HUGE, groundbreaking shifts in voter ideology (Liberal/Moderate/Conservative) something that rarely, if ever, occurs.  Voters constantly switch between labeling themselves Democrats or Republicans or Independents, but they're pretty comfortable with the Liberal/Moderate/Conservative labels because they don't really belong to any particular party.

    In fact, despite Party ID going from +0 Democrat in Election 2004 to +7 Democrat in Election 2008, Ideology stayed almost identical:

    From 21/45/34 to 22/44/34

    With that in mind, here are some adjustments I've made to PPP polling for the "shocker" races in WI and WV using the average of 2008, 2006 and 2004 voter ideology to "estimate" voter turn-out (just like what the various pollsters do with their "Likely Voter" screens).

    West Virginia (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 17 (13)
    Moderate 49 (42)
    Conservative 34 (45)

    Wisconsin (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 22 (*)
    Moderate 48 (*)
    Conservative 30 (*)

    * The cross-tabs for the Wisconsin poll are not showing up, so I can't find what PPP found the L/M/C breakdown to be in the state.

    And here are the adjustments for the two races:

    West Virginia (PPP in parenthesis)
    Manchin 48 (43)
    Raese 41 (46)
    Manchin +7 (Raese +3)

    Wisconsin (PPP in parenthesis)
    Feingold 49 (41)
    Johnson 45 (52)
    Feingold +4 (Johnson +11)

    Not surprisingly, the internal poll that the Feingold camp released matches closely with these findings.  

    I can understand shifts in Party ID/Turn-out, but not in Ideology. You don't just go from being Liberal to Moderate, or Moderate to Conservative overnight.  Here are the 2004, 2006 and 2008 Liberal/Moderate/Conservative numbers for the two states:

    West Virginia (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 17, 18, 16 (13/-4 from average)
    Moderate 50, 49, 48 (42/-7 from average)
    Conservative 33, 35, 34 (45/+11 from average)

    Wisconsin (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 20, 24, 23 (*)
    Moderate 48, 50, 47 (*)
    Conservative 32, 26, 31 (*)

    * The cross-tabs for the Wisconsin poll are not showing up, so I can't find what PPP found the L/M/C breakdown to be in the state.

    I really hope PPP gets a handle on their atrocious likely voter screens as we get closer to the election. Likely Voter models really shouldn't even be used until October, anyways, but Rasmussen has been quite effective at using them so it makes sense that others would join along.

    •  Thanks for that insight (2+ / 0-)
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      askew, v2aggie2

      although PPP isn't republican partisan and does have a good track record, these likely electorates do raise some questions. Your WV conversion actually matches Rasmussen's last poll in WV--not so for Wisconsin, unfortunately.

    •  Age (0+ / 0-)

      only 7% under 30? Wisconsin and Minnesota always lead in turnout from the youngest eligibles, thanks to at the polls registration.

      The poll was taken over a weekend with not just nice but splendid weather, so the only people at home by their landlines were watching football, no hikers, bikers, etc.

      Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

      by ben masel on Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 07:09:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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