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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, September 27th: Stuck at 52 Democratic seats (103 comments)

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  •  Hopefully, the Dem Senate can block the GOP House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hey BB

    Making anything that comes out of the House dead on arrival as soon as it passes.

    •  doesnt matter (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88

      obama can block it all.

      On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

      by glutz78 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:49:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What makes you think there will be a GOP House? (7+ / 0-)

      As far as I can tell the GOP will have to win 45 seats and not lose any more than teh few they're very likely to lose.

      IMHO I don't think they can pull it off.  28 or so seats will be more likely, but 45?  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:50:32 PM PDT

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      •  Some people are talking 80 seats (0+ / 0-)

        This is what you get when the White House doesnt care about winning the House.  

        •  80 seats? Name them (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, Superribbie, lookit, tcrguy, flhiii88

          I bet those blowhards can't.

          It's called PFA - Plucked From Ass.  Also known as Karl Rove's Math.

          Ain't gonna happen.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:52:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Look at this one guy's predictions (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Losty

            http://mark28.blogspot.com/

            He's talking a net of 112 seats.  That would put Republicans just one seat short of overriding an Obama veto.  If we lost that many seats, Democratic party would no longer exist.

            •  This guy is a random right-wing blogger (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, Superribbie

              a highly obscure one.

              De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

              by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:01:23 PM PDT

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            •  BWAHAHA! (4+ / 0-)

              112 seats?! That's the first time I've ever seen a number like that.  Yes, in the teabagger's mind, O'Donnell was also a logical choice over Mike Castle.

              Not to mention that there's no mathematical possibility of having a veto-proof majority in the senate so what's the point of a veto override if it can't get done in the senate too?

              The margin in the house will be close, no matter who's in the majority so it will be hard to get anything Democratic through anyway given the blue dogs who would love to jump ship more often than not.

              Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

              by DeanNC on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:09:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  please (0+ / 0-)

              On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

              by glutz78 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:17:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  This guy Mark is deluded if he thinks (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew

              Steve Israel, Walt Minnick, and Dan Lapinski are gonna lose. Those were the FLASHING signs of a teatard prediction.

            •  CA-39? Seriously? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, Geotpf

              That's a D+12 district that was drawn for a Hispanic Democrat.  The district itself is 61% Hispanic.

              Other particularly suspect calls on there include MA-06 (Tierney), MN-08 (Oberstar), OR-04 (DeFazio), and RI-02 (Langevin).  And while there's a number of seats on that list that I don't feel 100% confident that we'll keep, losing all of them is so unlikely that I'm not going to lose sleep worrying about the possibility.  The thought of Speaker Boehner and his flock of conservative committee chairs is frightening enough.

              •  HE THINKS (FUCKING) KUCINICH WILL LOSE (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Goobergunch, Geotpf
                •  NO — seriously? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew, Geotpf

                  He is completely and totally full of it then. No one has ever come closer than 15 points to Kucinich since he won his seat — and that was the strongest candidate the local GOP ever threw at him, Jim Trakas in 2008. He's up against a teabagging nobody this time. Most of the Democrats in his district would have to fail to vote and that isn't going to happen. The biggest Democratic turnout in the red-hot county elections is probably going to be in Lakewood and Parma  — the very heart of his district. And they are not going to vote for an obscure, extremist Republican against Dennis.

                  Is this guy even remotely familiar with the district or with Kucinich's opponent? He probably thinks my congresswoman (Marcia Fudge, Oh-11) is going to lose to, in a district where no Republican ever gets more than 15 percent of the vote.

                  De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                  by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:44:20 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  He also thinks Space and Wilson will lose (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew

                    our two Blue Dogs – and he is alone in that. I also think Sutton will pull out a win, despite the money a self-funding multi-milionaire is pouring into the race. It's a pretty Democratic district. It's possible Kilroy, Boccieri and Dreihaus could lose — Dreihaus was always our likeliest loss in Ohio. But recent polls have showed the race tied. He's literally predicting ohio will flip from a 10-8 Democratic delegation to a 15-3 Republican delegation leaving only Marcia Fudge, Marcy Kaptur and Tim Ryan. Gee, why didn't he just go all the way and predict they'd lose too?  He's pulling these predictions out of his ass.

                    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                    by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:49:23 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  LOL (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Geotpf

                  Totally missed that!

                  •  Kucinich losing (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Goobergunch, Geotpf, Scott M94

                    is the longest of long shots. People LOVE Kucinich over on the west side. Their only beef against him was that he was running for president and not paying attention to his district. Well, he's not now, and I just saw him two days ago, revving up an early-morning rally of Democratic activists. I think it's about the fifth time I've seen him out and about in the last few weeks. I saw him working the West Side Market with our candidate for county executive, taking him around and introducing him to all the ethnic vendors, who all know and love Dennis.

                    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

                    by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:58:28 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  Wow, that guy is smoking some wacky tobacky (0+ / 0-)

              For instance, he has 5 seats in California going from Dem to Rep.  Considering the incumbent-protection gerrymandering of the districts here, that's highly unlikely.  For contrast, Nate Silver has exactly one California seat (CA-11) on his list, and he is giving only a 54% chance of this happening.  Plus, the wacky tobacky prop 19 might actually make California an exception to the turnout rule this election (that is, liberals might be more likely to vote than conservatives, opposite of nationwide trends).  I'm kind of hoping my district (CA-44) might actually flip to the Dems, which almost happened in 2008.

          •  I'd like to see a list myself (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, eastvan, James Allen

            I can't see more than 25 - 30 as a Republican best case scenario at present, and chances of that seem to be slowly fading.

            •  Typical mid term loss is 28 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tmo, hester, askew

              I suspect we'll see something along those lines.  Anything short of 45 and the GOoPers will be powerless, although the Dems need a cushion to overcome the Bluedogs in their group, even though their ranks will be severely diminished next year.

              This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

              by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:12:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  First mid-term loss is lower (0+ / 0-)

                Its 13 losses for the first mid-term.  The thinking is that the party in power gets more sympathy in the first election because they just took over for another party that messed things up.  Sound familiar?

                •  I wish it was only 13 (0+ / 0-)

                  unfortunately many Dems are running scared.  Hell even Jim Himes in CT-04 is running republican lite ads.  As someone else said, when you giev teh voters a choice between a real republican and a fake one they will choose a real one every time.  I wish more would run like Alan Grayson, call your opponent out for the extremist fuckwad that he or she is and let the voters decide between the two different choices.

                  This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                  by DisNoir36 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:25:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  And when.... (0+ / 0-)

              can't see more than 25 - 30 as a Republican best case scenario at present, and chances of that seem to be slowly fading.

              it happens......

              After the build up, the tear down is going to be a delightful sight.

              it tastes like burning...

              by eastvan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:56:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Sources?? Linkies??? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geotpf

          A teeny smattering of proof that the WH "doesn't care"???

          It's only water. What could go wrong???

          by MrSandman on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:57:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  "Some people" are ignorant jackasses. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DisNoir36

          It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

          by flhiii88 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:59:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some people will talk about anything (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          flhiii88

          And the media loves epic, catastrophic narratives. "Some GOP pickups'" simply isn't dramatic enough. But unless Karl Rove has dropped acid, I doubt anyone actually thinks this.

          De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

          by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:00:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some people are also talking (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Geotpf, anastasia p

          about seeing Elvis at Burger King.  Right now, per the consensus of Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, CQ and the New York Times, there are 14 D seats that are likely goners; 32 more that are "tossups"; 25 more that are "lean hold"; 21 more that are "likely hold"; and another 18 that most think safe but one or two of them put as "likely hold."  That is a total of 71 competitive seats (or 14 goners and 57 competitive seats) plus 39 longshots with some upset potential.

          On the other hand, there are 2 GOP seats that are goners, 2 more that are tossups, 3 more that lean hold, 9 that are likely hold, and another 2 mentioned by somebody.

          How you get a net of 80 out of that is beyond me.  Based on how similarly rated seats performed in 2006 and 2008, the GOP is currently looking at +32 to +33.

          I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

          by Superribbie on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:34:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  What a joke (0+ / 0-)

          80 seats?  Really?  If that happens, I'm leaving the country.  Some are saying we'll never see a GOP House after Bush's years.  That, I'm a little unsure about, but an 80 seat gain is just wishful thinking.

          "We cannot build our own future without helping others to build theirs." -President Bill Clinton

          by Scott M94 on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 08:43:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  thank you for the reality check! (0+ / 0-)
      •  Many are making the GOP the favorites (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Superribbie

        This morning I took a look at all of the House Polling since since September 12th that is listed at electoral-vote.com.  There have been 31 polls taken since the 12th.

        In 2008 the Democrats beat the GOP by 10.68%.In the 31 polls I looked at, the average shift in the margin was -10.88.  Sounds awful, doesn't it?

        It is, but what it also suggests is that the generic ballot isn't anywhere close to GOP +10. What really caught my eye was comparing the numbers against the Cook PVI.  On average, the 31 races are about 4 points better for the Democrats than where you would expect them to be in a 50-50 race.  This is the power of incumbency, and suggests that when you look at individual races Democrats are running ahead of where they should be given the generic ballot.

        Bottom line: the House is still tough, but may be more winnable that we think.

        Data is here:
        https://spreadsheets0.google.com/...

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:01:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        As far as I can tell the GOP will have to win 45 seats and not lose any more than teh few they're very likely to lose.

        It's not 39. Add in Kirks seat in Ill. Castles seat is now deep blue ( that's all lost in O'Donnel sideshow -- but the Dem there leads by rout numbers ), Louisiana 02 is gone as is Hawaii. Republican potential vote growth has peaked, leaving it all to Democrats to vote and independants to look on appalled and finally make their choice.

        There are other races out there where Dem inccumbants are holding their own and of course there is the situation where there is a split ballot thanks to the 'bagger factor - which has also put forth some questionable candidates.

        28 or so seats will be more likely, but 45?

        28? That's about my guess. 45 is pretty hard to get. So I don't see the House going Red.

        But what I do want see on 031110 is the look on the faces of so many bloviating pundits on the picture box that night.

        it tastes like burning...

        by eastvan on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:49:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  this just makes me giggle (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Losty, coffejoe

      the media will get a case of amnesia about this whole 60 votes thing as they parade Republican after Republican out to demand a straight 'up or down' vote for everything.

      and the Media will dutifully point out that there are all of these bills which passed the House which are backed up in the Senate, and ask 'why are the Dems playing politics withe the bills? why can the Dems not work with the Republican house?'

    •  Won't be a GOP house (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, flhiii88

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:59:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  De Facto Republican Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hester

      Why pretend?  We know who the nominally Democratic senators are and we know how they have voted.

      A senate that is 52-48 Democratic is a de facto Republican senate.

      Compare how easily the Republicans rammed through legislation when they only had a bare majority with the apparent 60 vote requirement when Democrats are in the majority.

      Expect the Republicans to return to demonizing the filibuster and the emergence of a new coalition of Serious Senators who vow not to use it against anything Republicans want.

      •  The Senate apparently can't do anything (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abesilberstein

        no matter what the numbers are. I think we'll do better than 52 though. I think there'll be a couple of surprise pickups. But I have to say, it makes me absolutely blind with rage to see that we now have zero chance of picking up Ohio, which was a top pickup opportunity just a few months ago. Thank you SOOOOO frigging much, Lee "Martha Coakley" Fisher. It was so nice of you to smear your primary opponent with lies, lies you somehow conned the gullible Steve Singiser and Adam Bonin and Laura Clawson into spreading for you, and to fail to reach our to her supporters after the election and to virtually take the whole summer off from campaigning because of course you had it in the bag – you are Lee Fisher and the seat was owed to you. Did it never occur to you there was bridge-mending to be done, as well as hard work, starting the day after the primary? This one was so close for so long, and then Lee Fisher opted to alienate half the activists in the state and to barely campaign for long stretches. And unfortunately, he's running against a non-teabagger who is more likable than he is.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:09:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We. Aren't. Losing. The House. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, progressivebadger

      Jeez, read the freaking article already! The Publicans can't win with these trend lines. They might snipe off a few House Dems here and there, but not enough to change the balance.

      Of course, if we don't FIGHT, we might be able to snatch an even bigger defeat from the jaws of victory.

      (slaps you across the face)

      Buck up now! This is no time to lose your nerve! FIGHT DAMMIT!!!

      The next OneCare Happy Hour will be 10/29/10 -- come in costume!
      The GOP wants to kill Grandma.

      by Pris from LA on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:48:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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