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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, September 27th: Stuck at 52 Democratic seats (103 comments)

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  •  Many are making the GOP the favorites (2+ / 0-)
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    askew, Superribbie

    This morning I took a look at all of the House Polling since since September 12th that is listed at electoral-vote.com.  There have been 31 polls taken since the 12th.

    In 2008 the Democrats beat the GOP by 10.68%.In the 31 polls I looked at, the average shift in the margin was -10.88.  Sounds awful, doesn't it?

    It is, but what it also suggests is that the generic ballot isn't anywhere close to GOP +10. What really caught my eye was comparing the numbers against the Cook PVI.  On average, the 31 races are about 4 points better for the Democrats than where you would expect them to be in a 50-50 race.  This is the power of incumbency, and suggests that when you look at individual races Democrats are running ahead of where they should be given the generic ballot.

    Bottom line: the House is still tough, but may be more winnable that we think.

    Data is here:
    https://spreadsheets0.google.com/...

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:01:21 PM PDT

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