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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, September 27th: Stuck at 52 Democratic seats (103 comments)

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  •  Many are making the GOP the favorites (2+ / 0-)
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    askew, Superribbie

    This morning I took a look at all of the House Polling since since September 12th that is listed at  There have been 31 polls taken since the 12th.

    In 2008 the Democrats beat the GOP by 10.68%.In the 31 polls I looked at, the average shift in the margin was -10.88.  Sounds awful, doesn't it?

    It is, but what it also suggests is that the generic ballot isn't anywhere close to GOP +10. What really caught my eye was comparing the numbers against the Cook PVI.  On average, the 31 races are about 4 points better for the Democrats than where you would expect them to be in a 50-50 race.  This is the power of incumbency, and suggests that when you look at individual races Democrats are running ahead of where they should be given the generic ballot.

    Bottom line: the House is still tough, but may be more winnable that we think.

    Data is here:

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 07:01:21 PM PDT

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