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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 1st: The Ultimate Election Forecast (78 comments)

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  •  Doesn't account for malfeasance (1+ / 0-)
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    elwior

    I think you migh be better looking at a group of five or so pollsters with a demonstrable history of accuracy.  There is a lot of money floating around this election and a lot of unknown or suspevt polling companies throwing numbers into the pot.  At this point we are seeing same state, same time period, polls differing by several times their stated margin of error.  Keeping to "peer reviewed" polls may give a more accurate result.  Then again it could just be I'm bummed at seeing so many deems getting crushed.

    •  The polling used in these averages (0+ / 0-)

      has been around for a couple of cycles.  Most of the newer pollsters I have seen are polling in the House races.

      It is clear that taking the average (I actually prefer the median) is empirically the best model.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 05:16:42 PM PDT

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      •  Just my opinion, but I believe there's too (1+ / 0-)
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        Yosef 52

        much damn polling going on already, and that our focus needs to bein supporting our people and in GOTV efforts.

        "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

        by elwior on Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 09:00:42 PM PDT

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