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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 1st: The Ultimate Election Forecast (78 comments)

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  •  My Problem With Nate Silver (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Houses in Motion, zapus

    And with you too, Chris, is the importance in your analytical predictions of the idea that past pollster performance in prediction of outcomes is, itself, a predictor of future pollster performance in predicting outcomes.

    It's a tempting idea. It seems intuitive. That's why Federal law requires that investors be warned that they should not make such assumptions with regard to the performance of investments. The past is no doubt instructive, but not necessarily predictive.  

    At no time is this more true than when transitional forces are in play that have not occurred widely before.  This may be one of those times.

    I am buoyed by the optimism of these forecasts in predicting continued Democratic power to block the worst excesses that might take place if the Republicans make significant gains during the mid-terms. Holding the Senate means everything in that sense. But I actually think there are a large number of reasons to believe, based upon evidence of boots on the ground, that the results will be much more favorable to our side than these projections suggest.  

    "If you are going to tell people the truth, be funny or they will kill you." Billy Wilder 1906 - 2002

    by LeftOfYou on Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 05:41:26 PM PDT

    •  For better or worse.... (0+ / 0-)

      ...this is the very essence of Statistics.  Statistics is an interesting subject to me, but "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" rings very true.  I like seeing what they do, because I would be very interested to see how this matches up with reality in the end.  Also, Nate and Chris have to change their projections every so often as new variables occur in certain races, or across the board.  But, it will be very interesting how it comes out in the end.  

      If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

      by CO Democrat on Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 08:39:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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