Skip to main content

View Diary: The turnout and intensity gap problem (217 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  huh (0+ / 0-)

    where did you come up with five?

    As I see it- right now the Republicans should be pretty heavily favored in all twelve.  The are all Democratic incumbents, all well below 50%, and all currently losing.

    If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

    by JakeC on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 11:54:19 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I was replying to the commenter (0+ / 0-)

      above me, who said Republicans would portray a win of just five of those seats as a victory.

      I'd agree that Republicans are favorites in most of these seats. They have been for a while. But that isn't to say we can't win 2-3 of them, or more, and complicate (or cut off) their path to reclaim the majority.

      Based on these numbers (some of which are BETTER than I'd imagined), we have a not insignificant shot at holding a number of them, including Schauer, Perriello, Kratovil, Titus, even Boccieri. Sure, they're under 50%, but there are no hard-and-fast rules with polling. There will be exceptions, especially if our guys continue to paint their opponents as unacceptable. Plus, some of these polls could be understating our strength in any given race (as the opposite is also true).

      If you had told me months ago that Kratovil (who had been burned in effigy after cap-and-trade) and Perriello (who was targeted with violence during HCR) would be within low single digits at this time, I would have been pretty happy about our overall chances.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site