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View Diary: VA-05 & VA-02: A Tale of Two Democrats (22 comments)

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  •  Rigell is projected at 70% to win (0+ / 0-)

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 10:23:43 AM PDT

    •  What are those projections based on? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      regster

      Poll numbers.

      Statisticians have nothing but statistics to upon which to base their predictions.

      I remember a few years ago when Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were the inevitable nominees for the 2008 Presidential election.

      I remember when Martha Coakley received her coronation as the heir to Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

      27 days to Election Day. Sign up at OFA today.

      by Benintn on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 10:47:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  More sophisticated than just "poll #'s" (0+ / 0-)

        And it's not a prediction at all, it's a projection based on multiple factors.

        70% doesn't mean Rigell is a shoe-in either.

        Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

        by Scarce on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 10:53:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, you're citing cases that disprove your (0+ / 0-)

        own point. Guiliani and Clinton projections were based on pure speculation. It was 6 months to a year before any voting started and any polls done at that time are not worth much. When it got closer to voting, Guiliani polls were terrible. Hillary did ok but as you know it was a hard-fought battle and if she didn't make a mistake of ignoring caucus states she could have won. Polls close to an election day did a good job predicting the outcome of Coakley race.

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