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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 6th: A step backward, but hope remains (177 comments)

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  •  Sorry, we'll have 57 seats (9+ / 0-)

    including Lieberman and Sanders.

    Hate to piss in the punch, but that's how it's going to look on 11/3.

    Poor government comes about when good citizens sit on their hands instead of standing on their feet.' -- Robert Baker

    by jaysunb on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 05:22:58 PM PDT

    •  Geez, I hope you're right (0+ / 0-)

      What do your gains, holds and losses look like?

      Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

      by GoogleBonhoeffer on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 05:27:57 PM PDT

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    •  and where do you base this (0+ / 0-)

      prediction? Even the MOST optimistic is predicting 54.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 05:28:10 PM PDT

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      •  i think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        katesmom

        Harry Reid, Bennett, Conway, Mccadams, Giannoulias, and Manchin should all win.

        •  I am not sure about McAdams (0+ / 0-)

          but I agree on the others.  Plus I think both Sestak and Feingold will be able to pull out victories and I wouldn't count Carnahan out yet.  I think a lot of people are angry at the Dems and are saying they will vote Republican, but when it comes to going into the booth and actually voting, they will change their mind.

          •  Feingold is (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Aquarius40, CParis, jds1978

            dead in the water. When your CHALLENGER is constantly above 50% in every poll, he wins, not you.

            Sestak is not dead in the water like Feingold, but it doesn't look good for him. He hasn't led in a poll for months.

            Carnahan is gone. If it were any other year, she would be winning, but in this climate, Blunt wins in a walk.

            People don't change their mind that easily. Poll averages show an election result. Few people change their minds in the voting booth.

            I remember that logic in 2008 from Republicans, that Obama voters would reconsider in the voting booth and vote for John McCain. Didn't happen. Don't bullshit yourself.

            People panic too much on this site.

            by thematt523 on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 05:51:19 PM PDT

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        •  polls disprove you (0+ / 0-)

          Harry Reid has a chance of winning...but I have no way of pinpointing the likelihood; it's a complete coin-flip. Same With Giannoulias.

          But McAdams is very unlikely to win. There aren't enough Democrats in Alaska, and then some of the few that do exist are defecting to Murkowski.

          I'd put my money on Buck at this point, and Obama is too unpopular in WV for Manchin to win. Despite rhetoric, we do not vote for people in this country. We vote for parties. Same with Conway. He hasn't led in a single poll this entire year, and many polls show Paul up big. You don't win with those numbers.

          You are too optimistic. Maybe Bennet can survive, along with Reid and Giannoulias, but the rest is a pipe dream.

          People panic too much on this site.

          by thematt523 on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 05:48:41 PM PDT

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    •  Nate is really skeptical (0+ / 0-)

      with how we are going to do. Trends are turning in our direction.

      Conway really has a fighting shot to beat Paul
      Obama should keep Illinois Blue
      Mccadams has a shot
      If Crist is endorsed, Florida stops Rubio
      Mccadams has an increasing chance

    •  did you mean to type (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jds1978

      47 seats?   cause 57 would be great!

    •  I hope you're right and everyone else is wrong nt (0+ / 0-)

      "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

      by Geekesque on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 05:35:54 PM PDT

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    •  I think it's actually quite possible. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jaysunb

      27 days is an eternity in politics and Democrats have a serious war chest. Momentum is on their side, just need to go all out and GOTV! 57 seats really isn't unthinkable (although I'm starting to think WV is a lost cause).

      •  You're correct about (0+ / 0-)

        the time and money.  Everyday will bring more and more ads in the most needed districts and states. I personally give thanks to the MSM for creating a narrative that both pissed off and woke voters up. And the Teabag people too. The other 75% of us are appalled...
        I don't believe we'll lose WV, but I DO believe we will get a couple seats we hadn't counted on in the Senate. Say, maybe NC & La. ?

        I can hear the the laughter of the "informed" as I type, but this is all within the same possibility as any other prognostication.

        Poor government comes about when good citizens sit on their hands instead of standing on their feet.' -- Robert Baker

        by jaysunb on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 06:49:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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