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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 12th: Optimism! (141 comments)

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  •  sestack will win over toomey. bank on it. (7+ / 0-)

    why these numbers dont show that? i dont know...

    "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

    by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:50:59 PM PDT

    •  I actually think we're only gonna lose a couple (12+ / 0-)

      Senate seats. People are now starting to pay attention and Dems have kicked campaigning into high gear.

      I'm feeling better and better about our prospects. Just tune out the pundits and repubs and stay focused. We'll get it done.

      "We don't differentiate between 'them' and 'us.' It's just 'us.'" --- President Barack Obama

      by marabout40 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:54:30 PM PDT

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    •  I agree on Sestak. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Swordsmith, Matt Z, beltane

      Does the NH margin here include the two newest polls? ARG (47-42) and Ras (51-44). That's a HUGE swing from their last polls.

      And come on, how is there only a 28% chance of Alexi winning in IL right now!? I think every single one of those races except Missouri and Alaska are winnable (will be won!)

      •  i wonder if they call cell-phones ? (0+ / 0-)

        otherwise these polls are, generally, biased to exclude an important demographics...

        "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

        by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:58:15 PM PDT

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        •  I think pollsters factor that effect in... (0+ / 0-)

          Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

          by Jonze on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:58:58 PM PDT

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          •  what does that mean? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, CoEcoCe

            what is the formula for determining the number of people who have abandoned their land lines? Are they mostly young, or democrats, or liberal, or suburban, or urban, or coastal, or educated, or poor, or middle class, or etc? It seems like a pretty complicated set of factors to consider. I want to know.

            •  primarily, it's a function of age. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              coffee cup

              and the shifting consumption habits associated with that group.
              and one reason why this demo is important politically, is its proclivity to vote left.

              "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

              by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:13:37 PM PDT

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              •  I believe you (0+ / 0-)

                and I also assume the iPhoners who have cut their land lines lean progressive -- only because they are more tuned in to changing cultural patterns. But I still wonder how they factor that in -- what's the equation they use? It still seems like guess work.

                •  As I understand it (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  coffee cup, CoEcoCe

                  If they expect the electorate to be 20 percent voters under 25, and in random polling they end up with a screen of only ten percent, they just count them double (more or less, I guess technically they count them slightly more than double to make it actually equal 20 percent).

                  If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

                  by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:25:03 PM PDT

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                  •  it's a great example of how a marginal (0+ / 0-)

                    difference in an initial sample (people who actually answer the phone survey) can snow-ball into a massive poll margin of error..  i expect a massive turnout this midterm.

                    "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

                    by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:27:47 PM PDT

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                    •  It's not only ditching land lines (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      CoEcoCe

                      it's caller ID. Most people I know screen their calls, and if they don't recognize the number, they'll just let voice mail pick up. We've been trained to avoid answering for all sorts of reasons. I dunno, I just think relying on the telephone for gathering accurate polling data is getting more and more unreliable -- but then again I'm no statistician.

      •  Is there any recent MO poll? (0+ / 0-)

        I haven't seen one in ages.

        "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

        by joy sinha on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 06:59:22 PM PDT

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      •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:05:41 PM PDT

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    •  No, No, No!!! (6+ / 0-)

      Didn't you get the memo?  Democrats aren't enthusiastic about voting this year.  It's all downhill for us.  Doom, doom doom!  Get with the program!  Don't think for yourself!  It's over!  It's over!

      (Oh yeah, SNARK!)

      Now, GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!

      •  i wish i had a some evidence for the msm meme, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RoIn, Matt Z

        it feels like another betrayal by the "free-market" media system.
        is this the best we can get ?? news production sucks!
        as much as i am increasingly disgusted by google, i do wish sometimes that they would buy and enhance the NYT.

        "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

        by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:38 PM PDT

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      •  Then explain why in Ohio (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, RoIn, Matt Z, CoEcoCe

        more Democrats have requested early vote ballots and more Democrats have returned them. Also why we have more canvassers and phone bankers, and the Ohio GOP is sending out an SOS to import some.

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:12:36 PM PDT

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        •  ultimately, it doesnt make sense to have voted (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          in 08' and NOT to vote in 2010 .....?!?....
          why would anyone not vote this election ?

          "teabaggers say: i want my country back. well, i say: i want my country forward! ... " (bill.maher)

          by CoEcoCe on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:19:33 PM PDT

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        •  I know I've said this before, but I'd love for (0+ / 0-)

          you to do a diary on what you see on the ground in Ohio. You always have such great info.

          Also, do you have the link for where the early voting #s are? I thought Ohio reporting the #s by party by country or is that not true?

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:36:49 PM PDT

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          •  I don't know where they are being reported (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            I assume by county. Our daily paper had the figures last week for the three largest counties in Ohio. I know the party is keeping tabs and I got a breakdown of early ballot requests in my county tonight, keeping in mind that we are the largest and most Democratic county in Ohio. 190,000 requests have been submitted here so far, with 120,000 of those being Democrats, 45,000 being Republicans, the rest independents. I suspect our daily paper's unprecedentedly lavish endorsement of the totally unqualified Republican for county executive is doomed to fail especially since many Republicans are saying they'll support one of the independents.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:01:00 PM PDT

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    •  Um (0+ / 0-)

      because it won't happen? Statewide polls, despite what you think, are startlingly accurate when averaged, especially when a race is stable and the polls show similar results over and over again.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:41:02 PM PDT

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