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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 12th: Optimism! (141 comments)

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  •  57 /58 may be best case....KY may be a pick up (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, GoogleBonhoeffer

    NH is still iffy.

    "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

    by joy sinha on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:10:49 PM PDT

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    •  58. That's right! (0+ / 0-)

      58 is best case scenario if KY and NH are pick ups and only AR, IN and ND are losses.

      Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

      by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:13:27 PM PDT

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    •  57/58 probably too optimistic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      I just took a look at Nate's odds- I gave the Democratic candidates an additional 30% chance of the win in each race, still comes out with 54 seats.  

      And, like I said, that's giving an extra 30%.

      If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

      by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:13:51 PM PDT

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      •  As we said 57/58 is the best case scenario. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z, GoogleBonhoeffer, Final Frame

        These are all winnable, but democrats have to run a perfect campaign, GOP needs to implode (quite possible as all seems to be nuts), and GOTV.

        "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

        by joy sinha on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:19:25 PM PDT

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      •  Give 'em 40% (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        If you give every single Democratic candidate an additional 40% chance (and, therefore, deduct 40% from the Republicans)- the Republicans still gain two, and that's counting Florida as a Republican loss, presumably to Crist.

        In other words- if the Democrats come out of this election with 57 Senators, Nate probably loses that job over at the NY Times.

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:20:48 PM PDT

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        •  Path to 58 seats (0+ / 0-)

          We have to hold everywhere except AR, ND and IN while we have to pick up just 2 seats, NH and KY.

          Where else do you think we're definitely going to lose?

          Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

          by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:30:32 PM PDT

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          •  Like I said (0+ / 0-)

            I'm using Nate's numbers.

            He has the following Republican pickups as over a 90% certainty:

            ND, Ar, Ind, PA, and Wisconsin

            He has the Democratic pickups of being over a 10% certainty:

            Florida (Crist, so that may not even be a pickup), Kentucky, and NH.

            Now, as Nate would be sure to point out, if you have 10 races where the Democratic candidate's chances are only 10%, you would expect that they will win one of them, so a 90% threshhold doesn't mean an automatic loss by any means.

            But, if the Senate ends up at 58 seats- his whole methodology looks like crap.

            If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

            by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:40:18 PM PDT

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            •  4 goofs by Nate (0+ / 0-)

              It comes down to 4 goofs.

              Nate could be wrong about PA, WI, KY and NH.

              There's still 3 weeks to adjust his model as well.

              Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

              by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:49:32 PM PDT

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              •  Four is a lot (0+ / 0-)

                Especially "goofs" (not really the correct word, it's not like he's guaranteeing those results) of that magnitude.

                Although, to be fair, he does allow for the possibility of the Democrats ending up with 57 seats, he just puts it at roughly 2%.

                As for adjusting his model- remember, Nate is actually projecting the winner in November, not saying who would win right now.  And, given the fact that there has been almost no change in his model over the last several weeks, it's hard to imagine, barring a huge October surprise, that it's going to happen now.

                If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

                by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:01:54 PM PDT

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          •  Oh (0+ / 0-)

            and to answer your question about my belief (for what it is worth)-

            I'd say PA is lost.  It's been months since there was a poll that had Toomey better than within 3 points.

            I'm not as convinced about Wisconsin, if only because the trend there has been more recent, and I am not as convinced about the quality of the Republican to pull off the win.  Still, it doesn't look good.

            I also think Nevada is probably lost, although I know that is going against a lot of headwind in a state that, at least in terms of the polls is a toss up.  My thinking there is, if the President of the Senate cannot crack 50 on any poll, ever, then in the end he is going to lose.  The undecideds clearly know who he is and don't want to vote for him; if everything they have seen of Angle hasn't convinced them yet that she isn't a viable alternative, then whatever will?

            But that's just me.

            If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

            by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:55:26 PM PDT

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