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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 12th: Optimism! (141 comments)

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  •  Like I said (0+ / 0-)

    I'm using Nate's numbers.

    He has the following Republican pickups as over a 90% certainty:

    ND, Ar, Ind, PA, and Wisconsin

    He has the Democratic pickups of being over a 10% certainty:

    Florida (Crist, so that may not even be a pickup), Kentucky, and NH.

    Now, as Nate would be sure to point out, if you have 10 races where the Democratic candidate's chances are only 10%, you would expect that they will win one of them, so a 90% threshhold doesn't mean an automatic loss by any means.

    But, if the Senate ends up at 58 seats- his whole methodology looks like crap.

    If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

    by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:40:18 PM PDT

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    •  4 goofs by Nate (0+ / 0-)

      It comes down to 4 goofs.

      Nate could be wrong about PA, WI, KY and NH.

      There's still 3 weeks to adjust his model as well.

      Vote out the DO-NOTHING Republicans 2010

      by GoogleBonhoeffer on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 07:49:32 PM PDT

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      •  Four is a lot (0+ / 0-)

        Especially "goofs" (not really the correct word, it's not like he's guaranteeing those results) of that magnitude.

        Although, to be fair, he does allow for the possibility of the Democrats ending up with 57 seats, he just puts it at roughly 2%.

        As for adjusting his model- remember, Nate is actually projecting the winner in November, not saying who would win right now.  And, given the fact that there has been almost no change in his model over the last several weeks, it's hard to imagine, barring a huge October surprise, that it's going to happen now.

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 08:01:54 PM PDT

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