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View Diary: Polls That Exclude Cell-Phone-Only Homes Have Growing GOP Bias (48 comments)

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  •  au contraire. . . (4+ / 0-)

    Actually, the polls are getting consistantly more wrong. Look at just this election cycle. From Brown to O'Donnell, polling consistently missed the trend that resulted in the end result, until nearly the last minute. You can bet that Castle and That Woman in Mass would have loved to have accurate polling right along.

    Even above that, the polling is even more skewed when one considers that it has become an 'almost only the old who vote' sample. Pollsters compensate by formulas based on reasonable models of how the results would change if they could actually contact the cohorts that cannot, but that is all guess work, and clients do not like it. They want real numbers from real people.

    Polling has become a substitute for journalism in elections, and this fact is going to bit a lot of people in the ass, someday. That day may be the first Tuesday or this coming November

    •  No, but polls can't PREDICT things, they're just (1+ / 0-)
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      a snapshot in time. Brown and O'Donnell surged late, and the polling showed exactly that.
      The polls in neither race were off much, and if you extrapolate the surge they showed from the field dates of the last polls until election day they were exactly spot on.

      I'd bet that if the DE-SEN elected had been suddenly held a month earlier with just a day prior notice, Castle would have won 70-30. But O'Donnell had late momentum, and the polls reflected that, showing her gaining rapidly.

      Support Dennis McDonald and Montana Democrats in the 2010 election!

      by twohundertseventy on Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 06:12:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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