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View Diary: Nate Silver: 98% chance that I bust my ass for Dems between now and November 2nd (203 comments)

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  •  The survey I would like to see (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Winnie, elwior, skohayes, taiping1, kktlaw

    is the ratio of calls made to actual responses.

    Because that would tell me that they're not getting much of a response, and that response is going to be skewed to the most technologically illiterate.

    Most people don't just answer the phone, even if they're home and use a land line. They look at caller ID, or may just let the machine pick up EVERY call (I do) and only grab the phone if they want to talk to somebody.

    So even if every pollster in the world calls me, NONE of them are getting my response, because I won't answer their calls.

    People don't work regular hours anymore, either. So there's no time when they're more likely to get people on their land lines. That has to skew things too. For instance, if you call in the evenings, you'll never catch somebody who works nights.

    I suspect they're going to have to come up with some way to have caller ID indicate they're pollsters, so that if someone WOULD want to answer their questions, they could answer the call.

    •  Polling accuracy depends upon dual sets (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      trueblueliberal, elwior, FORUS50, kktlaw

      of stats 1st culled from actual postal addresses, where residents are screened for current, accurate resident information, then interviewed extensively for opinions, attitudes, understanding of laws, facts and actualities.

      You want a representative sample, you have to sweat for it.
      There's a good reason why it's called social science.

      "Hello, how old are you, are you registered to vote, and who are you voting for?" is less than worthless data via random digit dialing.

      Pollsters are shithouses these days (Rasmussen is exemplary) & I don't believe any of them. Expectations of R wins only make it easier for them to screw around like Florida 2000 & Ohio 2004. The Carter Center won't even certify U.S. elections. We don't qualify as "free and fair elections."

      We'll make progress when we lock up a Karl Rove instead of giving him airtime.

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