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View Diary: Nate Silver: 98% chance that I bust my ass for Dems between now and November 2nd (203 comments)

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  •  Unfortunately for you..... (2+ / 0-)
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    elwior, Dog Chains

    Nate Silver is already proven wrong on a lot of his preditions that he was making in August regardless of the outcome Nov02. After Nov02 I think his reputation will pretty much be toast when voters prove him wrong again.

    •  what was he predicting in August? (3+ / 0-)
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      elwior, codairem, rsmpdx

      I'm trying to find that and I can't find his posts.  But in fairness, all his models go to "if the election were held today..." which in itself is totally meaningless. I would like Nate to make election day predictions based on trend lines, etc.

      "If the election were held today" predictions are as useful as me saying to myself, "if I had a million dollars..."

      •  For each race, he posts a "forecast history" (3+ / 0-)
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        elwior, Sharon Wraight, FORUS50

        going back to February.  I am always intrigued by the CA-Gov, Brown vs. Whitman history, for example, because of the many times it has flip-flopped in a short span of time.  There are are number of similarly "sporting" races, such as OR-Gov.  Some forecast histories, of course, are just boring:  100% R or D for the whole period.

        I don't know if he posts histories of his composite (House, Senate) forecasts.  I haven't found them if he does.

        "I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me... I link, therefore I am." William J. Mitchell.

        by rsmpdx on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 05:47:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Heard on Sirius/XM POTUS channel (2+ / 0-)
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        elwior, Dog Chains

        I will paraphrase Nates comments heard on that channel in August.

        "Barring a miracle, Dems will lose the house in Nov and there is a good chance they will lose the senate as well".

        No, he did not say "if the election were held today".  He was making a prediction.  And IMHO anyone who want's do have ANY credibility as someone who knows how to read polls do not make predictions 4months out based on polls in August.  Anyone with half a brain knows that and Nate should have known better.  Instead he deserves to have his reputation ruined based on that and his continued apparent 'investment' in Dem failure!

        •  gotcha. It's unsettling for me (1+ / 0-)
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          as I so hoped he was right in the Fall of "08 and had lots of my friends convinced he was going to be correct.  But I do remember he had McCain in the lead in August too (as did the polls).  

          All in all I hope he is 98% to 100% wrong this November.  Even though he hasn't adjusted his numbers favorably for Dems, his narrative has certainly changed to hedging his bets on a House loss.

          •  "hedging his bets" is one way to put it yes.... (1+ / 0-)
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            another way to put it is covering his ass.  That is what pisses me off about these talking heads.  They can say one thing one day and something completely opposite the next.  So in the future no matter what happens they can always say, "see I was right, here is the tape".

            One of the main reasons I have no respect for most of these talking heads these days.  Almost all of them do it now.  They do not have to be accountable for what they say anymore so most of them lost their morals a long time ago.

            •  don't blame the messenger (0+ / 0-)

              Nate is just doing what any number-cruncher does. He is excellent at what he does. The fact that the numbers are not looking as good this year for Dems does not mean that Nate is doing worse. It's his job to be objective and unbiased, not to try and lead the public.

              How you interpret the polls and his numbers is up to you.

              Any good pollster or number-cruncher will tell that people's opinions can change, even within hours. I recall a pollster telling me of one case where a Democrat was up by 5% on the Friday before an election. But over the weekend he watched as his polling results showed that lead steadily ebbing, and by Tuesday the Democratic had lost. It wasn't that the polls were wrong, or flawed. It's that voters changed their mind, and the polls correctly tracked this, hour-by-hour.

              So don't take polls too seriously! Whether your candidate is up or down. Polls can change.

              But they often do not, for better or worse. Otherwise you could make a lot of money by "putting your money where your mouth is" on Labrokes or other betting sites.

              •  I disagree, I hate to put unfair critiques of (1+ / 0-)
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                motivation to Nate, as I've been a fan of his work for far longer thn just 538, but since the move to the NYT, he's taking on the persona of someone desperately trying to hold on to conventional wisdom, instead of the more straight numbers analysis he was known fo. I personally could care less, as at the end of the day, he's only as good as the poll data he's analyzing, but it has become odd how much he's blown up maintream coinciding with te new platform, and how much he's changed since that point in time. Just my personal opinion and no way is meant to be taken as verifiable fact.

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