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View Diary: Russ Feingold talks smack to CNN ! (57 comments)

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  •  Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane

    has results in that race that match up with other public polls. Sure, some polls may be slanted toward a party, but if ALL polls show a similar (or in this case, nearly identical) result, you have to assume the polls are right. Assuming they are all wrong is denial.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 06:43:14 PM PDT

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    •  Alright: Where did you see the RV numbers for CNN (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LynneK

      I was looking and could only find LV numbers.

      http://i2.cdn.turner.com/...

      The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

      by Bush Bites on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 06:45:06 PM PDT

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      •  page 5 (0+ / 0-)

        People panic too much on this site.

        by thematt523 on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 06:47:05 PM PDT

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        •  eh....3 point spread. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LynneK, bythesea

          That do-able if he gets any momentum.

          The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

          by Bush Bites on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 06:49:10 PM PDT

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          •  You are unpersuadable (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            pHunbalanced, VClib

            You first don't believe me that Feingold is behind with RV. I point it out, and you brush it off.

            An incumbent being down like this is extremely dire. Feingold surviving would be an almost impossible upset that I do not see as possible. Polls are eerily constant, therefore, a 5-7 point for Johnson is likely, if not assured at this point.

            I'll make you a deal; if Feingold pulls this out and beats Johnson on Election Day, you may mock me for my incorrect prediction for as long as you see fit.

            (I could add another provision in which I mock you for as long as I want if Johnson wins, but I don't have the initiative for that, and I don't want to be cruel to someone whose hope springs eternal.)

            People panic too much on this site.

            by thematt523 on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 06:56:16 PM PDT

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            •  I just don't think a single-digit race is lost. (5+ / 0-)

              I don't have any emotion invested in this thing but I just don't see this as insurmountable.

              Sure, he'll have to have some luck and momentum and a great ground game on his side, but it's not like he's 20 or even 10 points down.

              The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

              by Bush Bites on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 06:59:39 PM PDT

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            •  Even the pollsters have this as Lean Repub... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              samddobermann, LynneK

              ...not Safe Repub.

              So why would I throw in the towel?

              The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

              by Bush Bites on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 07:02:38 PM PDT

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            •  Do you live in my state ? Have you worked for a (8+ / 0-)

              pollster for four years like I have ? Do you know the methodology that's being used to determine who is and is not voting ? Do you know how pollsters weight down polling ? Do you know what the margin of error is in these Feingold polls ? Do you what what qualifies as a complete survey when they call these homes ?

              Do you know the effect that "qualifying" has on the results and how demographics always ends up benefiting Republicans ? Do you know about the Hmong community in Wisconsin ? Do you know about the African American Community in Milwaukee ? Do you know anything about what you're talking about or do you just have one negative opinion after another ?

              I was there when the Debbie Downers swore on their mothers grave that there was no way in HELL that Barack Obama could win the state of Wisconsin in a primary against Hillary and in a General against Mc Cain and I can tell you like I told them. You have no idea what you are talking about. Wisconsin voters don't even get excited about elections until the week before.

              The Tea Party coloring book only requires one crayon; . WHITE ~ Someone tweeted to Keith Olbermann

              by WeBetterWinThisTime on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 07:04:36 PM PDT

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              •  the polls (0+ / 0-)

                showed Obama winning Wisconsin by a good margin, which he did. And again, the idea that ALL polls are wrong makes no sense. If the polls were erratic, like Murray/Rossi, I would listen to your argument. But you are just in a sense of denial.

                The polls show a constant Johnson lead. People with those leads in poll averages win. Always. There is no way all the polls are wrong. Statistics does not work that way. Averages are correct. Mind-numbingly accurate.

                And I don't think that a Dem surge in Wisconsin is likely this year, since we are likely to lose 2 House seats (maybe 1 if we're lucky), and the governor's mansion.

                Just accept it; Feingold has lost. True, the votes haven't been counted yet, but the polls have sealed his fate. There is no chance of an upset.

                People panic too much on this site.

                by thematt523 on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 07:09:47 PM PDT

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      •  Even RV is the wrong model for Wisconsin (8+ / 0-)

        because of our at the polls registration, which is overwhelmingly yound, mostly first time veligibles, 18 and 19 yearts old, as well as college students new to the State.

        In 1992, my ward by the State Capitol had over 600 register at the polls.

        We have a medical marijuana referendum on the ballot in Madison, as well as the smaller college town of River Falls, which will also boost turnout in this demographic.

        2 races back, 1998, the at the polls registrants in Madison provided Russ his entire margin of victory.

        Adjusting for this polling error, Russ is within 2%

        Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

        by ben masel on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 07:41:19 PM PDT

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        •  From your mouth . . . (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          progressivebadger

          . . . to G-d's ears, as we say in my tribe (which, incidentally, is also Feingold's tribe).

          It should be noted that the reason for such high youth turnout in 1998 was the fact that Tammy Baldwin was running for Congress for the first time.  Her candidacy energized the student population in Madison.  I'm certainly hoping that the marijuana referendum will be this year's Tammy Baldwin, so to speak, and than a Madison youth surge can save Feingold.  Seeing as I am only 27 and not a Wisconsinite, does anyone around here remember what the polls were saying at this point in 1998?  Was Feingold as far behind then as he is now?  If so, I'll feel a lot better about this race . . .

    •  thematt523 gave upb when the Germans (3+ / 0-)

      bombed Pearl Harbor.

      Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

      by ben masel on Sun Oct 17, 2010 at 07:59:46 PM PDT

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