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View Diary: Polling and Political Wrap, 10/18/10 (88 comments)

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  •  Politico Reporting 99 Dem seats in play (0+ / 0-)

    Politico is reporting 99 Democratic seats are in play

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Reason polls may be understating Dem losses may be illustrated by early voting in North Carolina.  Republican male voting (early voting) is far higher than the norm.  In 2008, Dems enjoyed a 3:1 advantage in early voting; ratio this year is almost 1:1.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    The polls are using likely voter patterns to determine probable outcomes, if R turnout is higher than expected and/or D turnout depressed the polls will understate the size of the Democratic losses.

    Even worse from Democratic perspective -- If there are early heavy losses in the East (likely) and Midwest (almost a certainty) then that "wave" should further depress D turnout and invigorate Republicans making races in Nevada, Washington, California more likely to go in the Republican win column.

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