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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 18th: GOP takeover becoming extremely unlikely (69 comments)

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  •  I don't know that he does (0+ / 0-)

    I've been thinking about this.

    I think everyone assumes that Lieberman is out in 2012, regardless of what he does between now and then.  

    So, as he enters the next phase of his career, is he better off as a lifelong Democrat who is very willing to break with and criticize his party, or a newly minted Republican who has no bona fides with anyone.

    I think it's the former- everytime he speaks agaist a Democrat, or a Democratic issue, or endorses a Republican, it's news as long as he stays a Democrat to the end.

    If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

    by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:38:02 PM PDT

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    •  agreed--I think all this "joe will bolt" talk (0+ / 0-)

      is not very considered.  If Joe does want to run again in '12, he's toast in an R primary, at least as toasty as the Maine twins, who are lifelong R's and have on balance a far more Rish voting record.  

      If he doesn't want to run again, then I think your point is exactly right -- how many favors could he rack up in 24 months compared to what he'd be trashing?

      so then consider what his status in the senate would be, in the meantime.  Right now he has massive power (at least compared to what he deserves) by being a swing vote (and in general the novelty 'Democrat' who takes conservative positions).  In the R caucus he'd join a decimated "moderate" faction that barely exists, and that's had zero leverage since 2004.  How would he get leverage there -- by threatening to take a D vote every now and then?  How well do we think that would work out?  

      If the idea is that the R's would love him forever simply by virtue of his, let's say, handing a 50/50 senate to them, I don't buy it.  Joe is a weasel, everyone can see that.  He'd need to earn their loyalty anew, every day, and I don't see how he does that from within their caucus.  

      •  I disagree about Maine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        I don't think Republican establishment incumbents will be in as much trouble in 2012 as they are now.

        For these elections, the primaries were all low turn out affairs, where the more conservative base voters were just much more motivated to turn out.

        In 2012, Republicans will be picking their nominee for the Presidency, they should see a much higher turnout, which should make the average Republican voter more moderate.

        Plus, in states with open primaries, independents are more likely to vote on the Republican side since there will be an actual Presidential race going on there.  Even in closed states, if you are allowed to choose your party ID the day of the primary (like NJ), you'll again see independent voters choosing on the Republican side.

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:16:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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