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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 25th: Lieberman and Nelson aren’t going anywhere (121 comments)

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  •  I'm really upset about Russ Feingold. (5+ / 0-)

    I sent him moolah & hope he wins. But it looks dismal.

    "Sir, you are a very clever man, but not very wise. Everyone knows it's turtles, all the way down."

    by hester on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:20:42 PM PDT

    •  it seems the polls in 08 were (7+ / 0-)

      way off in both Wisconsin and Minnesota and Colorado in both the primaries and general election.  Obama won both states by significant margins that were not forecasted.  Before someone lectures me on "it's a midterm!" :) my point is that polls are polls and they haven't figured out the electorate there.  I don't think Franken was ahead but in one poll the entire time.  Now that was way close but I'm just saying that they got that one wrong more than they got it right.

      •  tyvm. u give me hope. (5+ / 0-)

        "Sir, you are a very clever man, but not very wise. Everyone knows it's turtles, all the way down."

        by hester on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:29:46 PM PDT

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      •  In Wisconsin (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        Obama won by 13.9, and the average was Obama by 11.  Rasmussen had Obama up only 7 in their last poll their.

        Ironically the best pollster in Wisconsin has since been accused of faking results: Strategic Vision.

        I have to say, though, I never thought they were that off.

        In Minn. The polling average was Obama by 9.8, and he won by 10.2.  Rasmussen overstate Obama's margin their, and SUSA way underestimated it.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:58:48 PM PDT

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        •  Go back farther. (0+ / 0-)

          2008 was somewhat amomalous, as there were big advance registration drives.

          Feingold was polling this far back in 1998, got over the top with huge at the polls registrations on and near campuses.

          Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

          by ben masel on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 08:33:50 PM PDT

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      •  It's the at the polls registration. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        science nerd

        Makes 18 and 19 year olds invisible to pollsters who only dial registered voters. The Wisconsin and Minnesota ALWAYS lead the country in turnout among the youngest eligibles.

        Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

        by ben masel on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 08:30:51 PM PDT

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    •  I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson tanks. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, FORUS50, science nerd

      His baggage with the childmolesters and hypocrisy about gov. support for business.
      The general narrative on these GOP candidates like Raese, Fiorina, etc. have to be wearing some holes in the armor.

    •  Surprised we havent seen more recent polling (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, FORUS50, science nerd

      for WI-SEN. A poll from 10/12-10/15, from St. Norbert College, is the last one taken, and it showed Johnson by only 2%.

    •  The biggest bummer on the chart (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, science nerd, HylasBrook

      Really sucks that he came up this election cycle, when the last two were so great.

    •  These projections are useless--and dangerous (6+ / 0-)

      they average polling data, some of it quite old, and they are not able to pick up on recent momentum, as Bowers acknowledges.  They are also heavily influenced by likely voter screens which might be way off.  I think Feingold has an excellent chance here and I sent money recently as well.

      These projections are dangerous because they reiterate the spin of the Republican sponsored and Republican-leaning polls.  Most polls this year have been sponsored by Repub outlets.  Cook goes with them because he really loves him some Republicans.  Silver is a straight math geek and can only use the data as it appears.  Bowers should know better.

      It's all about GOTV and the Rasmussen et. al. spin is designed to stimulate Repub enthusiasm and create Dem despair.  

      Don't fall for it.   GOTV!!!

      If looks could kill it would have been us instead of him.

      by jhannon on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:54:43 PM PDT

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      •  Keep calling!!!! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        I also wonder how much people with normal lives ;-) actually pay attention to these polls.

        Some of them are reported on the 10/11 o'clock new - but I wonder how much the average Joe & Jane pays attention.

        As political junkies we look at and analyze every poll, but we're a small subset of the population.

        I agree with everyone else though, this is the time to do GOTV.  Dem voters can get discouraged if they think their candidate is too far behind, or complacent if they think their candidate is ahead.

        We all know that the poll that really matters is the one on Nov. 2

        GOTV!!!!

        HylasBrook @62 - fiesty, fiery, and fierce

        by HylasBrook on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 07:02:00 PM PDT

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      •  that's all 100% true. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        it would be great if it didn't matter that they were distorting the truth with their biased polls - that the only damage was freaking us out until election day.  But the reality is that there are more people who are casual followers of politics who won't go out to vote if a) they can't vote for a "winner" and b) if they think that their isn't a chance that their vote matters.

    •  Russ is ahead. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      Pollsters have only called registered voters, but this misses all the youngest eligibles, who register at the polls, and go overwhelmingly to Feingold.

      Averaging pollsters who all msake the same fundamental error gives an average that's as off as each individual poll.

      Even Wisconsin Republicans are smarter than the pollsters. None has yet taken my very public offer of a $500 wager. (Wigderson indulged me by placing $20.)

      Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

      by ben masel on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 08:25:48 PM PDT

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