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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 25th: Lieberman and Nelson aren’t going anywhere (121 comments)

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  •  Chris, any hope for Harry Reid? (0+ / 0-)

    Not based on the polling, but on your gut?

    I can't believe NV is going to elect Sharrrrrron....

    Evolution is so obsolete, gotta stamp your hands and clap your feet! Gotta dance like a monkey, dance like a monkey, child.

    by espresso on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:23:00 PM PDT

    •  Maybe Nevada voters will elect Sharrrronnn (0+ / 0-)

      So she doesn't have to "take him out" by "second amendment remedies."  What Nevada voter wants to feel partly responsible for a murder?

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals, now we know that it is bad economics." Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Jan. 20, 1937

      by Navy Vet Terp on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:26:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Reid will be fine-- (6+ / 0-)

        his internal polling has him up a consistent 6.  I'm sure that assumes a massive GOTV, but he's pretty much the Man in NV politics so I think he can deliver.  I'm sure it also assumes an LV model that does not build in assinine assumptions about how only teabagging republicans will vote in this election.

        I think CO is going to be a tense evening but Bennet will make it too by virtue of a kick-ass GOTV (CO Dems built up one of the best GOTV machines in the country for 08; that's how we ended up taking the state by 8.5 points).  IL may or may not be tense, but I think G. makes it too.  Sestak who knows; I might put his chances at closer to 40% than 26.  Conway is still just an outside chance, unfortunately, but it could happen.

        In short, I think we're at 54 seats minimum, and maybe 56...

    •  Nah (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, espresso, jj32, eastvan, Matt Z

      Teabaggers aren't doing any GOTV and Reid's machine is worth a few points.

      All I've got is an orange blog, three paragraphs, and the truth.

      by Attorney at Arms on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:34:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Harry Reid will survive. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, espresso, eastvan, Matt Z

      That's my gut talking.

    •  Reid will prevail...maybe by not much (5+ / 0-)

      but he will prevail. As will Bennet. And Sestak is doin' the Sestak surge. Even Fiengold -- because I'll stack his GOTV against PlasticMans....

      The big story this year will be 'how did the polsters get it so wrong?'

      I'll venture an answer --- because they ommitted polling a whole pile of the electorate, thus skewing their results.

      Not to mention that polls based on such nebulous entitys such as 'likely voters' and 'generic ballots' and 'unenthusiastic voters' don't measure GOTV efforts.

      And the tactics of the Dem ground game are much more likely to prevail over GOP pollster/media strategy.

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 06:37:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      espresso, Matt Z

      To answer your question as literally as possible, there is definitely hope. It really is a very close election.

      Nevada is the ultimate "some has to win" campaign. About the only candidates either of them can beat are each other.

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