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View Diary: PA-Sen: A Microcosm for Democrats (92 comments)

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  •  Oh, I see--I'm hurting Sestak! (1+ / 0-)
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    Yosef 52

    I didn't know that!

    I thought the $109K Daily Kos raised, the time I spent fighting for him in my ward and state committee, and the five months I spent working on the campaign helped him.

    Find even one other person in the country who is not currently on the Sestak campaign who has done more for him than me.

    The purpose of the forecast is to give accurate information. If you have a problem with my model, then give me a case on the numbers, rather than demanding my degree and arguing that voters are better off ignorant.

    •  I bet the senate has 55+ seats. nt (1+ / 0-)
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    •  A poll is a snapshot (1+ / 0-)
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      of what the situation is today, Chris.

      The only case that can be made with the numbers is how those polled would vote today.

      You and Nate have been laying odds on this race for weeks now.  Nate's been doing it for months, I'm not sure how long you've been doing it.

      Can you explain to me how poll numbers that are a snapshot of that moment in time translate to odds of a candidate winning a race weeks or months ahead of time?

      Seriously.  What mathematical case can you make for laying odds on a race weeks ahead of time based on a poll numbers that do not take into consideration any events that will happen between then and the date of the election?  Where is the scientific case for that?

      You're doing the opposite of GOTV right now.  And I followed your writing when you were working for the campaign because I had a strong interest in the race.  I don't recall much being written about the race during that time, but I could be mistaken.  Which months were you working for them?

      Disclosure: I'm working as an unpaid citizen journalist covering the Sestak campaign/ PA Sen. race for Huffington Post's "Eyes and Ears 2010" project

      by joanneleon on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 07:49:20 PM PDT

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