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View Diary: Senate Snapshot, October 26th: What the percentages mean (74 comments)

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  •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

    Not to throw cold water here, but have you looked at 538's probabilities? That the Dems "probably" come up with 52 seats is about the only thing in common. Otherwise 538's predictions on that probability, Republican take over and most all individual races are much more negative to the Dems -- although in some races more favorable.

    Note 15% chance of Republican takeover at 538 as opposed to 1% chance under Pollster. I am hoping Pollster is right of course.

    Not sure if its better on GOTV to fear more or be more optimistic.

    My guess is Reid does lose and Schumer takes over as leader.

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