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View Diary: Final House Rankings and Projection (-47) (75 comments)

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  •  From 2006 thru 2008 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superribbie, AgentOfProgress

    We took 7 seats in New York...

    NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.

    We are unlikely to lose more than 4 of those in even the worst case scenario. Most likely we lose 2 and possibly keep it down to just 1.

    On election night in 2006 it was NY-20 and Kirsten Gillibrand that was the 15th seat which gave the Democrats the majority in the House. In order for Republicans to reclaim the House they have to mostly recross the same ground and retake the same seats. They've widened the field in the rest of the country but having such a disadvantage in New York (and other northeastern states with similar stories) makes their quest a lot harder then pundits realize.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Fri Oct 29, 2010 at 10:11:25 PM PDT

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    •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew C White

      the 29th is deader than the dodo, but we could well hold all of the others (and NY-01, where the GOP is putting up an expensive challenge to Tim Bishop.  The 13th, 24th and 25th look to be in solid shape.  I worry a bit about the 23d without Doug Hoffman to kick around and split the vote.  

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Sat Oct 30, 2010 at 06:30:47 AM PDT

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      •  Hoffman remains on the ballot (0+ / 0-)

        and polls show him still pulling in the teens. Enough to throw the election our way. My worries are the 19th, 20th, 24th and 23rd in roughly that order though the differences are small. I remain worried about the 24th simply because of how badly Arcuri underperformed in a strong democratic year like 2008.

        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

        by Andrew C White on Sat Oct 30, 2010 at 12:39:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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