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View Diary: Final ABC-Post poll has Dems within 4 among LVs (43 comments)

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  •  I have seen the early vote racial brake for NC (14+ / 0-)

    20% of them were casted by African American voters..... it caught me by surprise I know that there is a big AA population in NC and SC, VA, GA. but I think people (pollsters) are underestimating their numbers..which would mean that the house and few senate seats might be saved by this surge of African American voters.

    •  I did a quick check (11+ / 0-)

      AA are 20% of the North Carolina population.  Typically their voter #s are lower than their population percentage.  So if that were to hold through Tuesday night I think it could sure up the two dicey House seats.  

      •  here are the early vote stats for NC and others (1+ / 0-)
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        True North
      •  How awesome would it be... (8+ / 0-)

        ....that in the end, it was African-Americans who turned out to be the Democratic silent majority?

        •  Not Totally Unprecedented (4+ / 0-)

          How awesome would it be...

          ....that in the end, it was African-Americans who turned out to be the Democratic silent majority?

          If I recall correctly in 1998 Democrats were supposed to take a huge bath due to it being the 6th year of Clinton's term and the Monica Lewinsky scandal being front and center.  In the end Democrats ended up GAINING a handful of House seats an held their own in the Senate due, in large part, to a strong turnout among African American voters upset that Republicans were talking of impeaching a president that they had such a strong rapport with.

      •  there are more than 2 dicey NC Dem seats (0+ / 0-)

        I have seen figures that as many as four could be in play, with both Etheridge and Kissell in real jeopardy, with lesser degrees of trouble for several others.

        "what the best and wisest parent wants for his child is what we should want for all the children of the community" - John Dewey

        by teacherken on Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 07:01:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  one more point - (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        True North

        since African-Americans are usually concentrated in House districts that are already far more Democratic, increased turnout beyond normal rates may actually have a greater impact in Senate races, specifically in PA and IL.  In NV and CO issue will be Hispanic turnout, which for a variety of reasons should also be up, especially given the turn out and vote campaign put up by one of the Spanish networks AFTER they turned down the ad telling Hispanics to stay home and teach the Dems a lesson.

        I note that Ralston is now predicting a narrow Reid win in Nevada.  I think there also might be an impact in CO, in both Gov and Senate race -   Angle's rhetoric in NV had some spillover in CO, did it not?

        "what the best and wisest parent wants for his child is what we should want for all the children of the community" - John Dewey

        by teacherken on Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 07:04:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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