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View Diary: Vote on why Democrats lost the House majority (35 comments)

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  •  Did Republicans have something to do with it? (2+ / 0-)
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    Churchill, FiredUpInCA

    I was looking at the venerable Field Poll today, as I'm from California. Their last polling before the election included data on who's a likely voter and a table that looks at the same data for many years back. (It's a pdf that's easy to find through Google.)

    It will take the real numbers from today to be sure, but for the people the Field Poll was calling a likely voter in California, the expected Democratic turnout was about what it has been in past mid-term elections, not as good as 2006 as I recall, but better than some years before that.

    Meanwhile the expected Republican turnout was high. I concentrated on the Democrats in the table, so I didn't look to see if it was the highest mid-term turnout ever, but it might have been. Meanwhile independents weren't expected to turn out well in California.

    At the same time, all polls I've seen show high percentages of Democrats voting for Democrats, the same for Republicans. Is there any truth to the narrative that the things you've listed drove Democrats elsewhere? I can believe they made lots of us feel bad, even hold one's nose, but was that a big effect on votes? After all turnout here was normal for Democrats. It was the Republican turnout that was the story. I don't think they turned out because Democrats weren't progressive enough.

    Are we a reality-based community or not? If so, then we really ought to look at turnout numbers, the ones not available yet, before deciding what happened with this election.

    I watch my fellow Democrats blame each other with such passion and certainty, but do you have good numbers to back you up?

    Now is the high Republican turnout the fault of the Democrats? Is the substantial difference in turnout between mid-term and presidential elections the fault of the Democrats? I would think making that difference disappear is like controlling the tides. I'd love to be able to do that, but maybe it's not a practical goal. Meanwhile the Republicans have this propaganda machine and a unity through which they all parrot the same talking points, no matter how ridiculous they are. Do we need to overcome that? Or is it something else? I don't think anyone's intuition on that point is worth much.

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