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View Diary: Brace yourselves: we have a war on our hands... (345 comments)

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  •  This depends on the interesting proposition that (0+ / 0-)

    voters who are angry at the party in power for not effectively implementing a left wing policy would respond by voting for right wingers.

    I find this highly unlikely.

    If you want to see how a movement that is unhappy with its preferred party for not being effective and ideologically pure enough behaves you should look at the Tea Party.

    They were pissed at Republicans for being too moderate so they attacked from the right, not the left.  Yes, they voted out Republicans... but they did it by beating moderates in primaries with more extreme candidates, some of whom lost in the general election.

    If Democrats had lost this election because a progressive insurgency knocked out a bunch of Blue Dog incumbents and replaced them with socialists who couldn't win the general election you would have a point.  But that's obviously not what happened.

    •  No, no, you have the analysis wrong. (0+ / 0-)

      There is a certain large subset of voters (20% or more) who vote for perceived strength of character; they'll vote for Josef Stalin or Oscar Arias equally well, but they won't vote for a wuss.

      Certain Democrats have been writing those voters off.

      -5.63, -8.10. Learn about Duverger's Law.

      by neroden on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:24:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  BTW, they're often independents. n/t (0+ / 0-)

        -5.63, -8.10. Learn about Duverger's Law.

        by neroden on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:25:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Do you have any evidence for this claim? (0+ / 0-)

        I think that there is a large subset of voters (although not 20%) who are in the middle and will pick a candidate to vote on based as much on personality as on ideology since they find both candidates' ideologies reasonably acceptable.

        But if one candidate is hard right or hard left that candidate will lose those voters.

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