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View Diary: An Updated Agenda and A Look at Exits (Warning: VERY LONG) (46 comments)

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  •  I have one problem with this analysis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happy camper, roadbear

    and that is the assumption that the exit polls somehow are representative of the American people or even future electorates.

    The exit poll represents the view of a very Republican electorate, both in terms of party identification (6-7% republican advantage over previous elections) and the leanings of independents (voted 59/30 for Republicans). There is no particular reason to believe that electorate in 2012 or later will be as conservative. In fact, it almost certainly won't be, unless the economy continues to deteriorate.

    So I wouldn't take the poll all that seriously.

    •  It probably is more conservative (7+ / 0-)

      than the general electorate, and polls seem to bear that out.  However, I would note two things:

      1. I think it would be unwise to assume it was merely just right-leaning Independents who turned out and not a shift by independent voters from Democrat to Republicans.  I don't think we can assume that Independents are still out there supporting Obama like they did.  Again, polls would seem to support this idea.
      1. These were the people most motivated to vote this time around, and it is likely they will be some of the most motivated voters next time.  Will more people vote in 2012?  yes, certainly, if for no other reason than because it's a Presidential election.  However, I would caution against just waving away the results from an election, especially one where we just lost 60 or so seats in the House.

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