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View Diary: 23 DEMOCRATIC SENATE SEATS UP IN 2012!!! (122 comments)

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  •  Nv could be in play if Heller doesn't want it. (0+ / 0-)

    If he runs, he's a lock. Whoever runs in Mass needs to make the case that a Brown re-election is a vote for the GOP senate majority.  Mass went pretty hard for Blue yesterday though.  Maine is a possibility because I think Snowe will retire, however the state just elected a wingnut for Governor.  So Dems have one realistic pick-up in Mass.  Another longshot would be Kyl if Giffords decides to give up her house seat. And in the minority isn't nearly as fun.

    Looking at our side a lot will depend on the economy. -
    Nelson is toast, Heineman wants it and it's his.  

    Dianne Feinstein of California - Retire?
    Tom Carper of Delaware - should be okay
    Bill Nelson of Florida - Dems are weak in Fla
    Daniel Akaka of Hawaii - safe
    Ben Cardin of Maryland - safe
    Debbie Stabenow of Michigan - Mi went hard right in 2010
    Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota - should be okay
    Claire McCaskill of Missouri - tough hold, depends on economy
    Jon Tester of Montana - top target of GOP
    Bob Menendez of New Jersey - ???
    Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico - ???
    Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - safe
    Kent Conrad of North Dakota - retire or lose
    Sherrod Brown of Ohio - Ohio went hard right in 2010
    Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania - Conservative, should be safe
    Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island - better be safe
    Jim Webb of Virginia - Already has rematch waiting for him.  Will be tough to hold.  Depends on Economy.
    Maria Cantwell of Washington - Safe
    Joe Manchin of West Virginia - Should be okay
    Herb Kohl of Wisconsin - Retire?

    Independent incumbent elections

    Joe Lieberman of Connecticut - Tricky three way
    Bernie Sanders of Vermont - Better be safe

    So Nelson is gone in Nebraska, Conrad likely as well so we start off down two.  From there if the economy is still in the shitter Stabenow, Sherrod Brown, McCaskill and Webb could be in real trouble.

    Stop this roller-coaster ride, I'm getting off. So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish.

    by Jonze on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:19:53 PM PDT

    •  FWIW, Casey is no conservative. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jonze

      And Webb may not want to stay at all -- I don't know that he enjoys being there.

      •  I meant socially conservative. (0+ / 0-)

        Basically should have said pro-life.

        If Webb doesn't run, I'd assume Kaine would jump at the chance. Or maybe MacAuliffe(sp).  Webb isn't much of a campaigner, so I could see him retiring if the economy is still the top issue rather than having a huge re-election battle.

        Stop this roller-coaster ride, I'm getting off. So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish.

        by Jonze on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:24:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He is pro-life. (0+ / 0-)

          I can't think of a vote on which his being pro-life has mattered in four years.

          •  HCR in 2009 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B

            I remember his name was brought up during it when Nelson was trying to block it unless it had certain anti-funding language put in and Casey was the one writing it up or something like that.

            I don't think it would be an issue on our side - I was trying to say being pro-life should help him, even if that cultural issue is not as prevalent in Pa politics.  It was a big enough issue that the GOP wouldn't allow any pro-choicer as McCain's VP.    

            Stop this roller-coaster ride, I'm getting off. So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish.

            by Jonze on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:32:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I can imagine some coming up (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B

            Really, I probably won't vote for Casey.  I thought long and hard and then voted for Onorato, but Casey I probably can't.

            Also, the whole health care thing, instead of being smooth, was almost derailed by Roman zombies, which gave it somewhat poor optics.

            •  I don't give pro-life candidates my money. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              theran, leema

              But if that's my party's nominee, that's who I'll support in the general.

              •  As much as I feel like a sucker (0+ / 0-)

                usually my sweetie and I discuss it and we end up voting for the Dem, but I am holding out hope that Corbett and his buddies manage to botch things to the point it won't be close in two years.

                This diary's general point is a bit scary, though: the 2012 map doesn't seem all that favorable to Democrats.  Then again, maybe "broad but weak" is the only kind of majority either party has seen since the 80's.

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