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View Diary: FL-Gov : County by County Data aka Monkey F'n a Football (25 comments)

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  •  I don't understand your numbers. Why don't (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mp

    you just have percent voter turnout and the numbers of votes for each candidate?  I'll have to look at it more closely later to try to figure it out.

    It would be interesting to factor in foreclosure rate by county.  Palm Beach, Broward and St. Lucie have a very high number of foreclosures.  This adds to the transient nature of low income Floridians.  Has anybody ever taken a look at this?  What is the turnover for the voter rolls?  The number of registered voters probably isn't very accurate.  Half of the people on them have probably moved.  This was a problem in 2008 in Florida.  Many of the OFA names and addresses were inaccurate.  The FDP should have an ongoing voter registration/update effort.  Republican retirees, on the other hand, pretty much stay put.

    The main effort I saw from OFA was to get Kendrick Meek elected.  That was a waste.

    BTW, Collier County is not Rick Scott's home.  He isn't a Floridian.  

    •  I did a post with the turnout numbers... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sweeper

      a couple days ago, focused just on turnout.

      This was focused on performance of the Sink campaign based on the goals I calculated from historical data and as good an understanding as an outsider could have of the campaign being run.

      I did posts pre-election day with the turnout projections and goals.

      You can see all of this stuff on my website linked in my signature if you like.

      Are you a Proud Progressive running or thinking about running for office? Visit www.mpapolitical.com.

      by mp on Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 10:05:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  OFA's effort may have looked like it was for Meek (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sweeper

      ...but it was for Sink.

      It was intended to deliver minority turnout for Sink, but Meek is a better draw for that purpose.

      Scott has been a legal resident of Florida for enough years to qualify for the Governorship, and claims Collier as his home.  His campaign made strong efforts there as such.

      Are you a Proud Progressive running or thinking about running for office? Visit www.mpapolitical.com.

      by mp on Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 10:07:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, you may have just struck on another (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mp

        untrue statement.  "Meek is a better draw" for minority turnout.  I don't know what minority turnout ended up being.  Maybe you have that in another post.  Regardless, the turnout wasn't enough.

        Sink ignored the Board of Administration issue.  So did the FDP, even though it has massive exposure on her Wikipedia page.  Both she and Meek were very hard to get excited about.  Crist, on the other hand, would have lent an excitement factor, although, he too was on the BOA.  The thought of beating Rubio was enticing.  The thought of Meek causing a Rubio win was irritating, to say the least. Did Meek stay in for Alcee Hastings sake?  Hastings seemed to have the biggest problem with Meek dropping out. This mess, this is what the FDP has to offer?

        My comment about Scott's residency was rhetorical.  He's a Bush Texan, in my opinion.

        Thanks for your research.  I'll check out your website.

         

        •  Meek spent the bulk of the last 3-5 weeks... (0+ / 0-)

          ...working minority turnout in specific areas of the state.

          It is important to keep things in perspective, there was no expectation that Meek, or anyone else, was going to deliver high turnout.  The objective was to reduce the drastic falloff in turnout that was expected.  As you may be able to see in my history based projections versus actual turnout, in most counties, we were able to do that.

          Of course, one must also remember that the historical turnout models are heavily based on the previous campaigns for governor, which have sucked as well, particularly among minorities and liberals (which might as well be a minority to the FDP).

          The fact Sink over performed at elevated turnout levels in Duval tells me Meek was effective.

          I'm not sure how you could suggest Meek was not a better draw for minority turnout - he may have been weak with some minority communities, but overall he was a hell of a lot better than Alex Sink.  But, again it is relative.  No one is suggesting he was inspiring record turnout, just that he reduced the collapse and helped keep Alex Sink competitive.  Take him out of the race and you lose 10-30k votes in Duval alone.

          I was never a fan of Meek running for Senate, but him dropping out post-primary was never a benefit to the Democratic party.

          Are you a Proud Progressive running or thinking about running for office? Visit www.mpapolitical.com.

          by mp on Sat Nov 06, 2010 at 08:47:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Duval is the only county where minority (0+ / 0-)

            voter turnout will affect the outcome of a race?  Then what is the point of worrying about the minority vote?

            We will never know about Meek dropping out post-primary.  We all have our speculations.  The FACT is, Rubio was a certainty if Meek stayed in.  That was a definite negative for the Democratic party.

            •  The issues are twofold (0+ / 0-)

              a) his name would stay on the ballot regardless of him dropping out and/or endorsing crist, as such a large number of people would still vote for Meek anyway

              b) crist winning would be worse than rubio winning

              Duval is not the only county where minority turnout will affect the outcome of the race, it is one county where I have first hand knowledge it was both important and effective.  Miami-Dade, Broward, Hillsborough, Orange (we're pretty sure minority outreach was fairly successful here, but I have no first hand knowledge as of yet.)...

              When the race was decided by less than 100k votes, it is clear that this was an important endeavor.

              Are you a Proud Progressive running or thinking about running for office? Visit www.mpapolitical.com.

              by mp on Sat Nov 06, 2010 at 11:44:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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