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View Diary: FL-Gov : County by County Data aka Monkey F'n a Football (25 comments)

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  •  Meek spent the bulk of the last 3-5 weeks... (0+ / 0-)

    ...working minority turnout in specific areas of the state.

    It is important to keep things in perspective, there was no expectation that Meek, or anyone else, was going to deliver high turnout.  The objective was to reduce the drastic falloff in turnout that was expected.  As you may be able to see in my history based projections versus actual turnout, in most counties, we were able to do that.

    Of course, one must also remember that the historical turnout models are heavily based on the previous campaigns for governor, which have sucked as well, particularly among minorities and liberals (which might as well be a minority to the FDP).

    The fact Sink over performed at elevated turnout levels in Duval tells me Meek was effective.

    I'm not sure how you could suggest Meek was not a better draw for minority turnout - he may have been weak with some minority communities, but overall he was a hell of a lot better than Alex Sink.  But, again it is relative.  No one is suggesting he was inspiring record turnout, just that he reduced the collapse and helped keep Alex Sink competitive.  Take him out of the race and you lose 10-30k votes in Duval alone.

    I was never a fan of Meek running for Senate, but him dropping out post-primary was never a benefit to the Democratic party.

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    by mp on Sat Nov 06, 2010 at 08:47:01 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Duval is the only county where minority (0+ / 0-)

      voter turnout will affect the outcome of a race?  Then what is the point of worrying about the minority vote?

      We will never know about Meek dropping out post-primary.  We all have our speculations.  The FACT is, Rubio was a certainty if Meek stayed in.  That was a definite negative for the Democratic party.

      •  The issues are twofold (0+ / 0-)

        a) his name would stay on the ballot regardless of him dropping out and/or endorsing crist, as such a large number of people would still vote for Meek anyway

        b) crist winning would be worse than rubio winning

        Duval is not the only county where minority turnout will affect the outcome of the race, it is one county where I have first hand knowledge it was both important and effective.  Miami-Dade, Broward, Hillsborough, Orange (we're pretty sure minority outreach was fairly successful here, but I have no first hand knowledge as of yet.)...

        When the race was decided by less than 100k votes, it is clear that this was an important endeavor.

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        by mp on Sat Nov 06, 2010 at 11:44:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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