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View Diary: An upbeat economic diary for Thanksgiving (74 comments)

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  •  Your diary does bear out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury, New Deal democrat, lilnev

    that the economy outside of the real estate sector is improving.  The real concern over the next 12 months is going to be real estate, both residential and commericial. New home sales took another dive last month, and the supply of new homes, even though it's at historic lows, is at 9 months at the current rate of sales.  We can't expect much from home construction for the near term.  The real question is whether the growth we will see in 2011 will be strong enough to produce enough jobs to bring the unemployment rate down more than a few ticks.  

    "Do I have any regrets about the hard votes I took?" No. Not at all...and I never will. --Mary Jo Kilroy

    by Kurt from CMH on Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 08:32:41 AM PST

    •  New home sales (5+ / 0-)

      First of all, one year ago you had people buying houses to beat the initial expiration of the $8000 credit.  So the YoY comparison in this case is misleading.

      If you look at the data from a 2 or 3 or 5 year perspective, home sales have been bouncing along the bottom for almost 2 years.

      In many of the hard-hit areas, home prices are at 25 year lows.  And interest rates to pay the mortgage on those prices are at 50 year lows.

      There are locales (e.g.,Phoenix) where if a young couple is willing to give up their expensive smart phones for a couple of years, that same amount of money will make their mortgage payment.

      Lower prices in those locales are attracting buyers.  There is a reasonable chance of a significant increase in new home sales by next summer.

      "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

      by New Deal democrat on Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 08:42:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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