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View Diary: President Bloomberg? New third party, "No Labels", and the Interactive Voter Choice System (66 comments)

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  •  This is the dumbest idea. (0+ / 0-)

    "New grassroots group targets centrist voters".

    There are no centrist voters. We're all polarized at the moment.

    •  Yeah there are centrist voters (3+ / 0-)

      it's really the people who don't pay much attention who self-identify as "centrists".

      It's their flip-flopping that most turns the government from tweedledees to tweedledums.

      42 million Americans on food stamps. Clearly we need to cut Paris Hilton's taxes.

      by tiggers thotful spot on Sun Nov 28, 2010 at 09:36:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, there are (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Nisi Prius

      and they decide a lot, maybe most, elections. Just as an example (the numbers being somewhat made up), partisanship runs about 40-40. The 20% that's weakly partisan or non-partisan gets to pick the winner.

      But only if you already have one of the 40% blocs on your side. So a D or an R has 40% in their pocket, and works to get more than half of the center's 20%. That swing gave Dems the House in 2006, a bigger majority in 2008 and the White House, and gave the House back to the GOP in 2010.

      A third party has it much worse - they have to build up that 40% base before they can even start to worry about the last 20% in the middle.

      Perot was probably the best-possible scenario for a 3rd party candidate, and he got 19%. At his top in the polls, he might have reached 35% or 40%. As noted above, he really didn't even swing the election in the end, at least not statistically.

      And that's about the best a 3rd party is going to do unless the circumstances are really extraordinary. If unemployment hits 20% - 30% or some similar shock occurs, it could happen, but I doubt Bloomberg has enough money to do it without major external events. Perot didn't.

      We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. - John F Kennedy

      by badger on Sun Nov 28, 2010 at 10:59:46 PM PST

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