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View Diary: "Bad Deal" Filibuster Liveblog 4 (392 comments)

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  •  I believe you mean (0+ / 0-)

    "post hoc ergo propter hoc", and there's a small amount of legitimacy to the complaint, but it's also the case that primaries necessarily involve members of the party fighting each other rather than the other party, and spending money doing so. This is not helpful. Furthermore, it's very unlikely that any primary challenger can match the name-recognition advantage an incumbent President enjoys.

    When you have correlation combined with a likely causative mechanism, it becomes much more reasonable to assume there is some causative effect.

    Ask yourself this though: When was the last time a candidate defeated an incumbent in a primary, and went on to win the White House? 1876!

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