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View Diary: Once Members, Now Citizens (148 comments)

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  •  Ok, lets check it out (0+ / 0-)

    go to

    and use the slider top right - "Results by Year"

    to get to 2008 and 2006

    now go into the individual States to see the

    in Virginia 3 or 4 seats won. Pretty impressive. South West also impressive.

    •  Virginia is the exception (0+ / 0-)

      Not the rule.  There were a few Congressional Districts where larger than usual African American turnout helped bring in Democrats.  Obama did not win all of them though.  Those districts include but are not limited to OH-1, VA-2, and VA-5.  

      The gain in VA-11 was in an open seat that had been trending Democratic, was one of the wealthier in the nation, and was an open seat.  We only gained 21 seats in 2008 and a good number of them were seats that Obama did not win (i.e., the Democrats won in spite of, not because of Obama).  These districts include NY-13, AL-2, NM-2, CO-4, ID-2, and a whole host of others.  

      Obama was able to boost and turn out (relative to a midterm) high numbers of black and Latino voters in 2010.  Now this was enough to save the Senate and help us win some key gubernatorial races as well as some key downticket statewide races.  But it did not save the House.  The reason being that most of the Districts in play did not have large minority populations (those populations tend to be more concentrated and are often voting in seats that are already safely Democratic).

      My point being that the gains in 08' were relatively small and not due to Obama sweeping people in.  Obama may have swept in but he didn't sweep in a lot of others.  

      •  ??? (0+ / 0-)

        On what planet are you living? Anti-Obama? Young people voted for Obama like never before. Now just African Americans? Jeezzzz

        •  Many people (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          voted for Obama and skipped the downticket ballot.  This included a lot of independents, African Americans, young people, and first time voters.  What I am saying is that Obama did very well but he did not have coattails.  It's been noted that coattails have been on the decline in recent years.  Waves can make big impacts on elections but there are few cases where politicians at the top of the ticket can really pull in downticket races.  

          I pointed out to you that among many seats the Democrats gained in 08' only to lose subsequently ijn 10', the districts voted for McCain, sometimes overwhelmingly.  Thus, Obama didn't pull them in, instead, they pulled themselves in notwithstanding Obama.  Now there were some instances, like VA-5 where Obama did not win the district but did far better because of large African American turnout and that turnout voted for a Democratic Congressional candidate who then managed to win.  But there were very few races like that.  

          Now in 12', who could say what's going to happen.  Obama might have huge coattails in districts that the GOP won, especially in the Midwest.  

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