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View Diary: December Private Job Creation Highest in history of ADP Report (56 comments)

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  •  In that case, these numbers (0+ / 0-)

    are way freakin' off from BLS - for example the non-seasonally adjusted change for 2007 from Nov to Dec was +670,000  

    http://data.bls.gov:8080/...

    So why didn't *this* survey pick that up?  Or at least be in the ballpark?

    •  Scratch that, I read the table (0+ / 0-)

      incorrectly.

      •  However, for the unadjusted data (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jfromga

        it looks like there is more often than not a *decrease* in employment from Nov to Dec - so for whatever it's worth, this year's increase might actually be something to celebrate because it bucks the trend?  

        Who knows, I realize that economic optimistism is officially frowned upon at this site, if not down-right bannable . . .  

        •  stop with the pity party (0+ / 0-)

          there are a variety of voices and view points here.  Right now the more pessimistic voices are winning more acceptance for a variety of reasons.

          First off, they persisted despite many flames and negative voices two plus years ago before the disaster of the 2008 crash, and in continuing with negative reports even after things stabilized when Obama took office.  Showing up is the larger part of winning.  In fact, one of the greatest criticisms made in politics is not staying on message.  They stayed, and they stayed on message.

          Secondly, events have largely borne out a negative scenario, not as bad as economic annihilation, but extremely severe economic dislocation that has disproportionately affected certain groups.  And the recovery has been largely in financial markets, overseas markets, and very little for ordinary Americans, older workers and the youngest workers and the traditionally displaced because of ethnicity.   It has allowed the 'doom and gloomers' to focus on the broader picture of American workers including the middle class in decline, of losing out over decades, not just the last 30 or so months, income growth, wealth accumulation, the whole economic pie.   It has allowed those voices to paint the corporate infiltration of politics, the ceding of power from voters to money, that allows extremely popular ideas to languish and economic absurdities such as tax breaks for the richest 1% and a tiny fraction of estates to add greatly to the deficit.   It has shown us that no one in Washington outside a small handful of Democrats willing to stand up to the Republican lie that Social Security adds to the deficit.    The evidence, statistical, short term and long term, is on the side of gloom and doom.  And that's without the social issues, the liberty issues and climate change being thrown into the picture.

          The recession is technically over, but average consumers are pessimistic.  The stock market has rebounded, but Social Security, the very notion of pensions,etc., remain under attack. Unions that helped build a middle class are under attack.  Job growth is better than it was, but this remains a jobless recovery, millions are now permanently unemployed and have just disappeared out of the statistics.  And we have to suffer the indignity of those Rethuglicans who actually think that the 99'ers got relief on the unemployment extension.

          And because of gridlock, because the political system and the media have been bought and paid for, the information we take for granted here, both the negative and the positive, isn't out there in front of oridinary people.

          People on both sides let personalities and loyalties get in the way of facts.  What should have been discussion to create a balanced view of what is happening fell by the wayside as the most strident voices, not the best arguments took over.  That's sad for everybody.  I read and supported Bondad's diaries here , I have read and supported Silver Oz.  I have had some pretty harsh exchanges from time to time with Badabing and Bobswern and Gjohnsit, and at other times I have rec'd and agreed with them.

          Bring me facts and rational analysis.  Support what you have to say, the good and the bad, and I will support the comment or the diary.   We need the information, we need the solidarity.  We don't need to fight each other.  We don't always have to agree on the analysis or the prognostication, but we need the variety of voices without the oneupsmanship.

          •  You seem to be conflating a couple of issues (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jfromga

            one is the disparity between the rich and poor in this country - that's not likely to improve in the foreseeable for sure.

            The other is that it appears that we very well might be on the verge of a full-fledged economic recovery that (finally!) involves some substantial growth in jobs. That's *something* isn't it?  You know, something that could be appreciated for a little while on it's own without piling on all the other stuff?

            •  I don't believe (0+ / 0-)

              I am conflating the ideas but I do believe there will be no full fledged recovery and no repair to middle and working class fortunes until we address wealth disparity and all the laws and policies not to mention mindset that has been swallowed as gospel for the better part of forty years.

              Job growth should be welcome news and I said as much.  But as a current diary on what kind of jobs points out, the majority of growth, even if it persists at high levels, will not be 'middle class' wage jobs.

              Ignoring the still dire outlook for rapid job growth back to prerecession levels, job growth with living wages and basic policy that will drive these things, it's not exactly time to be resting on laurels.

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