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View Diary: Scott Ritter: Bush plans to attack Iran in June (273 comments)

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    Have a look at a map of the region.  The port of Bandar Abbas, which the Iranians developed after their other major port was captured by the Iraqis during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, is easily blockaded by the American navy.  75% of all Iranian goods pass through Bandar Abbas.

    It's true that Iran has not had years of economic sanctions, but its military quality is still poor.  The Iranian economy has recently improved, but struggled along for many years after the 1979 revolution.  Iran's once-splendid air force is in pathetic shape, its navy virtually non-existent, and although its number of troops under arms is reckoned to be about 400,000, only 40%-50% of those are considered "combat ready".  

    What's more, Iran's economy is extremely vulnerable to a naval blockade because the Iranian economy is a one-trick pony:  petroleum exports account for 90% or so of its foreign earnings.  

    Bush wants to knock the Iranian economy down, badly damage or even destroy their shipping facilities, and basically make life miserable for the Iranians.  What's more, what foreign investor in his/her right mind is going to put money into Iranian projects when the country is under American bombardment?  No point building an oil pipeline or factory when there's a good chance an American bomb will blow it to bits.

    Even so, damaging the Iranian economy WILL take time--why do you think Bush is going to start now and not wait until after the 2006 elections?  He has an unchallengeable majority in the Congress, has cowed the media and the opposition party into abject submission, and is already whipping up anti-Iranian war hysteria.  

    There are three kinds of people: Those who see; those who see when they are shown; those who do not see.

    by Shadowthief on Tue Feb 22, 2005 at 03:01:14 PM PST

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