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View Diary: Egypt is the future (122 comments)

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  •  That's fine and dandy, but I await evidence that (6+ / 0-)

    the protesters in one public square, reaching a peak of a few hundred thousand (on the "March of Millions" day) in a city of 7 million (20 million in the metropolitan area) speak for 80 million folks throughout the country. I worry that the West (both the governments and the citizenry) are projecting their own desires onto the demonstrators, and even more so onto the 80 million Egyptians.

    What normally happens in these situations is that the revolutionaries, if they prevail, do so whether the majority of the citizens like it or not, and those citizens just go with the flow.  Let me point out that the majority of Americans did not support the American revolution (about a third did; another third supported the British, and the final third didn't care), and that was an actual country-wide "war for independence", rather than today's more common "revolution via urban uprising" whereby crowds in a nation's capital overthrow the government while the populace throughout the nation is generally untouched by the goings on and aren't consulted at all.

    No, I'm not supporting that Mubarak stay in power; rather, I am cautioning against reading too much into "regime overthrow via urban uprising", for we're seeing in that urban uprising the desires of a particular class of Egyptian society: the intellectuals, the urban youth, the ideologues, idealists, and well-educated; they may or might not speak for the average Egyptian.  

    I say that the protesters will prevail unless Mubarak goes into total-crackdown mode (like what happened in Tehran; and even that might not help him, as it didn't help Chuchesku in Romania) or Mubarak somehow gets out of Cairo and actually shows that he has support among the populace outside of the class that is demonstrating against him.  He's talked of having a "silent majority" of support, but there's no evidence that's the case either.  I'd be interested in seeing either the protesters or Mubarak show that either one of them has support among the wide Egyptian populace.

    •  Yeah, we always misinterpret this stuff. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Saw a show recently where they showed a bunch of Chinese kids in their late teens/early twenties a photo of the guy in Tienneman Square standing up to the tanks.

      Not one of them knew what the photo was showing.

      •  That's as distant as a picture of Washington (0+ / 0-)

        Crossing the De La Ware.

        A Catholic, Jew, Muslim and Buddhist walk into Al Aqsa Mosque. Buddhist immediately exclaims: "excuse me I appear to be in the wrong joke."

        by Salo on Sun Feb 06, 2011 at 08:53:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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