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View Diary: Politico: Jim Webb won't seek re-election (312 comments)

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  •  Terrible news...nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    They call him Machete...

    by dclawyer06 on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 08:43:07 AM PST

    •  He was the strongest candidate for the seat, by (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      killjoy, Cream Puff, dclawyer06

      far. Everyone else on the roster is in pretty bad shape if the GOP rallies around Allen.

      Make no mistake though, if McDonnell gets in he steamrolls everyone.

      •  What makes you think that? (0+ / 0-)
      •  Not with Obama winning the state again (6+ / 0-)

        I can't see anyone splitting a ticket with Obama/McDonnell or Obama/Allen.  So if Obama wins again by a comfortable margin, then a decent democrat like Kaine can follow him on through.

        Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

        by DeanNC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 08:52:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah. I don't see him carrying the state in 2012 (6+ / 0-)

          unless the economy improves significantly in Western and Southern Virginia. And with a GOP sitting Governor, it is going to be a lot harder to carry that state. But I agree, if the economy improves, he could carry Kaine over against Allen.

          •  PPP showed him winning a few weeks (5+ / 0-)

            ago. Certainly, that can change, especially if the economy doesnt improve, but if he was winning despite being at a low point of his presidency, then he could be in a good position in 2012.

          •  NOVA will probably (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Cream Puff, Virginia mom, kat68, DeanNC

            be an even bigger share of the electorate, and I suspect he'll also rack up big margins in Richmond and the Newport News/Hampton Roads areas once more.  I don't know if he will be able to do as strongly as he did in some areas of Fairfax, those "fiscal conservative but socially liberal" suburbs.  He should, given that his record is tailor-made for those people, but who the hell knows.

            "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

            by Loge on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:20:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  What makes you think he'd win? (0+ / 0-)

          The Democrats got crushed in 2009.
          Then they got massacred in 2010.

          Frankly I think if Obama is on the 2012 ticket any other Democratic candidate is going to face serious negative coattails.

          "Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth." -- JFK

          by Tryptophan on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:15:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  IF? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Cream Puff

            "if Obama is on the 2012 ticket"?

            You know something we don't?

            The best pizza comes from New York.

            by JakeC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:22:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Obama will win the state again (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Cali Scribe, jem6x, kat68

            I was born and raised in Fairfax county in northern Virginia.  My parents retired to the Eastern Shore and my brothers still live in Alexandria and Arlington.  I know Virginia and its different parts very well.

            Dems got crushed in VA because they have off-off year elections (2009) with a bumbling idiot at the head of the ticket.  Then in 2010, there's no statewide races at the top of the ticket to help draw out a reluctant electorate.  

            More people voted in the 2008 Democratic primary on a cold day in February than voted in the 2010 general election suckfest.  

            Virginia is now officially a Purple state and trending more blue each presidential election cycle.  It's the off-year cycles that still kill us when it really depends on motivated turnout and you don't have a guy like Obama to lead the charge.  

            Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

            by DeanNC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:28:21 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  2012 Obama is not a guy like 2008 Obama (0+ / 0-)

              If you're from Fairfax you know Connolly barely edged out Fimian - in freaking Fairfax!

              I think we're going to face a reluctant and dispirited electorate in 2012, just like in 2010. And 2009.

              Are you somehow imagining it's going to be 2008 all over again? I was there on that cold day in February in 2008, and I'm not seeing it.  

              Obviously the economy can improve and there are plenty of GOP contenders that literally anyone could beat, but the idea that Obama will be able to save whoever runs for Webb's seat seems not based on reality.

              He wasn't able to save Deeds.

              "Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth." -- JFK

              by Tryptophan on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:33:42 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It won't be 2008 all over again . . . (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                twalk, kat68

                if it was the Dem nominee would be looking at a 300K victory margin to play around with.  I'm being a bit generous here since not every Dem is Mark Warner and not every GOPer is Jim Gilmore (Warner won by over 1 MILLION votes -- that's a huge victory margin in a contest with almost 4 million votes cast).

                In 2008 versus 2006 there was something like a 3 to 4 percent increase in African-American turnout in Virginia with over 95 percent of that vote going towards the Democrats.  That's a huge base of support that might not be as strong in 2012, but was not available to Webb in 2006 when he only won by 10K votes.  That alone is about 75K to 100K new votes likely to tilt in favor of the Democratic nominee.

                Also Deeds ran in 2009, not 2008.  There's a difference between Obama having a few rallies and saying "vote for this guy" and Obama actually having his name on the ticket.

              •  Deeds won't be at the top of the ticket (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Cream Puff, Mariken

                There's a difference between Obama being on the top of the ticket himself and endorsing another guy at the top.  

                It may not be 2008 again (unless Palin wins the Nomination) but it certainly won't be 2010 or 2009 again.  

                Connolly survived in a terrible year but I don't think 2012 will be like that year at all.  I think it has a much greater chance of going the other way, especially if the GOP shuts down the government as I expect they will at some point.  

                NOVA is home to quite a lot of government workers who are well-aware of who's to blame for that.  A friend of mine at the DoD can attest to that.

                Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

                by DeanNC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 10:39:32 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Win/win (0+ / 0-)

          Kaine in the Senate means we keep that seat Dem, and we can get a DNC Chair that actually knows how to elect Democrats.

          (Not happy with Kaine after the November debacle.)

          Now to try to end the wars we ask our gay and straight soldiers to fight. -- Chris Hayes

          by Cali Scribe on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 11:12:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  2012 is looking worse and worse. (3+ / 0-)

        I don't have the unshakable faith that we'll keep the WH either.
        I'm not rooting for a loss, obviously, but '12 is gonna be a real nightmare if the dems don't get it together.

        They call him Machete...

        by dclawyer06 on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 08:58:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama can win a John Kerry type map (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dclawyer06, cville townie, mconvente

          if he faces stiff opposition. But the GOP has to find the right person who can say "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

          It's a pretty devastating line considering the White House's milquetoast record on jobs and housing.

          •  But we are better off. (0+ / 0-)

            Four years ago will be two months into the crisis.  Sure more jobs were lost befor than after November 2008, but voters should remember who was in the WH when it started.

            The way I see it, a president is most responsible for economic events at the end of his term(s), because of the delayed effects of his policies and the absence of a new guy to blame.

        •  Senate was always going to be in jeopardy (8+ / 0-)

          because of the '06 gains.  Wouldn't surprise me to seem them lose it no matter what happens in the presidential race.

          Nebraska's gone.  North Dakota's probably gone.  And Montana and Virginia are very iffy.  There's four right there.  With no guarantee that the Dems will gain any.

          You must compete by working more for less. Mush!

          by Paleo on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:03:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If I wake up the day after the elex... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Aquarius40, fabucat, mconvente

            with massive teabagger majorities in the House and Senate and a newly minted teabagger King(or Queen) in the WH, I'm gonna be one angry mofo.

            They call him Machete...

            by dclawyer06 on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:08:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Then gird thy loins, mofo. (0+ / 0-)

              Much better to wake up now and do the work, than wake up 11/2/12 a loser.

              2012 is going to be the toughest election we'll ever see.  I've been voting since '72, and I can't think of any time it's been tougher, more important, or that there's been a bigger deck stacked against us.

              It ain't called paranoia - when they're really out to get you. 6 points.

              by Jaime Frontero on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 10:18:40 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Add Missouri to that list as dicey (0+ / 0-)

            and possibly West Virginia, too.

            Democrats can probably defeat Scott Brown and maybe Olympia Snowe will retire or get teabagged.

            It's all hard to get a feel for because the voters don't seem to be voting for anything.  They seem to be voting that they feel they're in deep crap and don't see anyone pointing the way out of it.

            Frantic orthodoxy is never rooted in faith but in doubt. It is when we are unsure that we are doubly sure. -Reinhold Niebuhr

            by killjoy on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 10:49:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Why is that? (8+ / 0-)

          I'm not a Democrat, and maybe that shields me from some of the doom'n gloom, but I can't see how things are getting any worse for you guys.

          You started off in a tough position: twice as many Senate seats to defend as the Republicans will have, a result of big gains in 2006 and the normal rotation of Senate elections.

          But that was already true.

          In the meantime, Obama hasn't done so badly.  He pissed off progressives with the tax deal, but made it harder to paint  him as "comrade Obama" or some such thing -- and did manage to get extended unemployment benefits and a partial reinstatement of the estate tax.

          His approvals are looking better.

          The Republicans are making noise, but not doing much useful. Instead of making sensible and popular changes to the ACA, they are simply seeking to get rid of it.  I don't think that's a popular position out "in the country". Replace it, fix it, sure.  Throw it out and take us back to where we were? Not so much.

          And, the economy has to rebound sometime, right?

          Presidents and their parties always get too much credit and too much blame for the economy. If it comes back in a way that we can feel it on Main street, Democrats will do all right.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:06:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's my hope... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Aquarius40, dinotrac

            that the republicans relentless nihilism and lunacy will be so off-putting to indies that we can keep the WH.

            But this is the central question:

            And, the economy has to rebound sometime, right?

            They call him Machete...

            by dclawyer06 on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:14:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes it is, and both parties have an incentive (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Cream Puff, dclawyer06

              to want it better.

              Republicans are now in a position to drive legislation in the House. They will be vulnerable to "do nothing in a crisis" criticism if they do nothing, and "stabbing your supporters in the back" if they do things to make it worse.

              Democrats, on the other hand, win in the House no matter.
              As a minority party in the House, they get credit for putting the country ahead of party lines if they support useful and popular GOP initiatives, and can be "looking out for the Average Joe/Joline" by opposing lunacy.

              If things get better, they get to bask in the Presidential glow that comes simply from being there when times get good.

              LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

              by dinotrac on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:37:17 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  But they might not (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Allen is not conservative enough for the teabag crowd.

        "Acting on Hate does not require guns" - Deoliver47

        by kestrel9000 on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:40:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  PPP had Kaine up on Allen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        by a larger spread than Webb v. Allen.

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