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View Diary: Politico: Jim Webb won't seek re-election (312 comments)

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  •  Not with Obama winning the state again (6+ / 0-)

    I can't see anyone splitting a ticket with Obama/McDonnell or Obama/Allen.  So if Obama wins again by a comfortable margin, then a decent democrat like Kaine can follow him on through.

    Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

    by DeanNC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 08:52:02 AM PST

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    •  Yeah. I don't see him carrying the state in 2012 (6+ / 0-)

      unless the economy improves significantly in Western and Southern Virginia. And with a GOP sitting Governor, it is going to be a lot harder to carry that state. But I agree, if the economy improves, he could carry Kaine over against Allen.

      •  PPP showed him winning a few weeks (5+ / 0-)

        ago. Certainly, that can change, especially if the economy doesnt improve, but if he was winning despite being at a low point of his presidency, then he could be in a good position in 2012.

      •  NOVA will probably (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cream Puff, Virginia mom, kat68, DeanNC

        be an even bigger share of the electorate, and I suspect he'll also rack up big margins in Richmond and the Newport News/Hampton Roads areas once more.  I don't know if he will be able to do as strongly as he did in some areas of Fairfax, those "fiscal conservative but socially liberal" suburbs.  He should, given that his record is tailor-made for those people, but who the hell knows.

        "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

        by Loge on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:20:45 AM PST

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    •  What makes you think he'd win? (0+ / 0-)

      The Democrats got crushed in 2009.
      Then they got massacred in 2010.

      Frankly I think if Obama is on the 2012 ticket any other Democratic candidate is going to face serious negative coattails.

      "Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth." -- JFK

      by Tryptophan on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:15:10 AM PST

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      •  IF? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cream Puff

        "if Obama is on the 2012 ticket"?

        You know something we don't?

        The best pizza comes from New York.

        by JakeC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:22:22 AM PST

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      •  Obama will win the state again (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cali Scribe, jem6x, kat68

        I was born and raised in Fairfax county in northern Virginia.  My parents retired to the Eastern Shore and my brothers still live in Alexandria and Arlington.  I know Virginia and its different parts very well.

        Dems got crushed in VA because they have off-off year elections (2009) with a bumbling idiot at the head of the ticket.  Then in 2010, there's no statewide races at the top of the ticket to help draw out a reluctant electorate.  

        More people voted in the 2008 Democratic primary on a cold day in February than voted in the 2010 general election suckfest.  

        Virginia is now officially a Purple state and trending more blue each presidential election cycle.  It's the off-year cycles that still kill us when it really depends on motivated turnout and you don't have a guy like Obama to lead the charge.  

        Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

        by DeanNC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:28:21 AM PST

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        •  2012 Obama is not a guy like 2008 Obama (0+ / 0-)

          If you're from Fairfax you know Connolly barely edged out Fimian - in freaking Fairfax!

          I think we're going to face a reluctant and dispirited electorate in 2012, just like in 2010. And 2009.

          Are you somehow imagining it's going to be 2008 all over again? I was there on that cold day in February in 2008, and I'm not seeing it.  

          Obviously the economy can improve and there are plenty of GOP contenders that literally anyone could beat, but the idea that Obama will be able to save whoever runs for Webb's seat seems not based on reality.

          He wasn't able to save Deeds.

          "Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth." -- JFK

          by Tryptophan on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 09:33:42 AM PST

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          •  It won't be 2008 all over again . . . (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            twalk, kat68

            if it was the Dem nominee would be looking at a 300K victory margin to play around with.  I'm being a bit generous here since not every Dem is Mark Warner and not every GOPer is Jim Gilmore (Warner won by over 1 MILLION votes -- that's a huge victory margin in a contest with almost 4 million votes cast).

            In 2008 versus 2006 there was something like a 3 to 4 percent increase in African-American turnout in Virginia with over 95 percent of that vote going towards the Democrats.  That's a huge base of support that might not be as strong in 2012, but was not available to Webb in 2006 when he only won by 10K votes.  That alone is about 75K to 100K new votes likely to tilt in favor of the Democratic nominee.

            Also Deeds ran in 2009, not 2008.  There's a difference between Obama having a few rallies and saying "vote for this guy" and Obama actually having his name on the ticket.

          •  Deeds won't be at the top of the ticket (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Cream Puff, Mariken

            There's a difference between Obama being on the top of the ticket himself and endorsing another guy at the top.  

            It may not be 2008 again (unless Palin wins the Nomination) but it certainly won't be 2010 or 2009 again.  

            Connolly survived in a terrible year but I don't think 2012 will be like that year at all.  I think it has a much greater chance of going the other way, especially if the GOP shuts down the government as I expect they will at some point.  

            NOVA is home to quite a lot of government workers who are well-aware of who's to blame for that.  A friend of mine at the DoD can attest to that.

            Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

            by DeanNC on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 10:39:32 AM PST

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    •  Win/win (0+ / 0-)

      Kaine in the Senate means we keep that seat Dem, and we can get a DNC Chair that actually knows how to elect Democrats.

      (Not happy with Kaine after the November debacle.)

      Now to try to end the wars we ask our gay and straight soldiers to fight. -- Chris Hayes

      by Cali Scribe on Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 11:12:08 AM PST

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