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View Diary: Egypt Liveblog: Sub-Diary #87 (343 comments)

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  •  Jordan, Yemen? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    m4gill4

    Syria, along with Libya, is the least likely candidate for the "next" domino. It seems like you have some personal connection to Syria and hope to wish something true.

    http://www.economist.com/...

    it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses

    by Addison on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 11:06:03 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  I think your calculus could just as easily be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      m4gill4, Grumpy Young Man

      flipped, that because the Yemeni president has vowed to stand down and not allow his son to ascend to the leadership, and because King Abdullah has just fired his governmentand called for political reform -- while in the meantime Bashar Assad is all talk and no walk-- that the Syrian people will be most incentivized to take to the streets.  After this happens, events become harder to manage.

      "And now we know that government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob." -- FDR

      by Mogolori on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 11:20:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We'll see... (1+ / 0-)
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        Mogolori

        ...of course I'm not psychic but I feel you DO need seeds of organizations and small-scale freedoms to get to the large scale revolts, and I don't think Syria is at that stage yet. If any large scale revolt were to bloom there in the near future it would be very brief, extremely disorganized, and bloody.

        it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses

        by Addison on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 11:34:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Totally plausible, of course. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Addison

          But a successful overthrow of Mubarak and the politics that protected him would tug very strongly at the average Syrian.  There were essentially countrymen in the days of Nassar.  A democratic Egypt where self-expression and -determination were part of everyday life would weigh heavily on Syrian pride.

          "And now we know that government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob." -- FDR

          by Mogolori on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 11:55:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not so sure (1+ / 0-)
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        Mogolori

        I have strongly suspected that the restrained response by the Egyptian military was at least in part due to the leverage the US has over them due to the cash and technical assistance we provide to their military.  If there had been a bloodbath, it would have made the US look pretty bad.

        There are no such restraints on the military or security forces in Syria.  Last Friday it was said that there would be protests in Syria similar to those in Egypt, but when the time came, only a few dozen took to the streets, and many of those were said to look a lot like Mukhabarat.

        •  Bingo. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          m4gill4

          A military crackdown was never in the offing in Egypt, just as Mubarak reeled in his real police/security forces in lieu of symbolic gestures (sword wielding camel riders straight out of Lawrence of Arabia).

          This was not the repressive dictatorship at its actualized potential for violence and control.  THis was more of a calculating / transitional scenario.

          The US would have looked bad (meaning libruls might have been aroused from their somnambulant state) and the orderly transition (to more of the same so far) in Egypt would have been endangered.

          Please don't feed the security state.

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